Brewers vs Padres Predictions, Picks, Odds: Darvish Leads San Diego to Victory

The San Diego Padres (8-8) answered back last night with a 10-3 win after dropping the first two games of a four-game set with the Milwaukee Brewers (10-5).

They'll send their ace Yu Darvish to the mound in hopes of walking away with a split series while the Brewers will send Wade Miley to the hill after a solid start to the season.

Can Darvish and the Padres tie things up with the Brewers or will Wade Miley and the rest of Milwaukee take home the series on Sunday afternoon? Keep reading our MLB betting picks for Brewers vs. Padres below to find out. 

Brewers vs Padres odds

Brewers vs Padres predictions

After an extra innings nailbiter in the opening game, the Milwaukee Brewers and San Diego Padres have traded big-batted blows in the two games since. Milwaukee cruised to an 11-3 win on Friday behind two home runs from Rowdy Tellez while Jake Cronenworth responded with two of his own yesterday in a 10-3 blowout.

On Sunday, the teams will have to flex similar offensive prowess to take home the win. The Padres have Yu Darvish on the bump for Sunday's game, and he's had fantastic results in a limited sample against this Milwaukee roster.

In 65 combined plate appearances, these Brewers have managed just a .143 average. Of the batters with over five plate appearances against Darvish, Christian Yelich has managed a measly team-best .211 average (4-for-19). Brian Anderson has gone 1-for-10 and both Jesse Winker and Luke Voit (the only other two hitters with 5+ plate appearances) have gone a combined 0-for-24.

That is particularly concerning given that Winker, Anderson, and Voit account for Milwaukee's second, third, and fifth-best batting averages on the year thus far (minimum 25 plate appearances). And as for fresh faces, their pair of rookies Garrett Mitchell (.260 AVG) and Joey Weimer (.200) have cooled off significantly since their hot starts.

Not helping matters is that the Padres have had their way with Wade Miley in a rather appreciable sample. In 126 combined plate appearances, they have hit Miley to a .286 batting average while maintaining a 15% walk rate. Xander Bogaerts (.333 AVG, .600 SLG) and Nelson Cruz (4-for-8 with five walks) are the best of the bunch in that regard.

The odds may seem long, but they are more than warranted.

My best bet: Padres moneyline (-160 at WynnBET)

Brewers vs Padres moneyline analysis

Sunday is also a great buy-low opportunity for Darvish after his last start in which he allowed five earned runs in 6 1/3 innings of work. Despite the blemish, his underlying metrics are still incredibly strong.

He's allowing an 85th-percentile barrel rate and the spin on his fastball ranks in the 87th percentile. He is struggling with getting batters to chase (sixth percentile) and his strikeout rate has suffered as a result (23rd percentile), but those numbers should return to his norms as his sample grows. He has ranked in the 80th percentile or better in all but one of his seasons in MLB.

Wade Miley, conversely, has had an unconvincing start to the season when it comes to the advanced metrics despite his 2.45 ERA start. To his credit, he is limiting hard contact (90th percentile ranks in both hard hit percentage and average exit velocity) but everything else is a screaming red flag.

He ranks in the 14th percentile in whiff rate and in the 10th percentile in strikeout rate. And unlike Darvish, there isn't much from his career that suggests he should see a massive correction in this regard. He also ranks in the Bottom 3% in terms of fastball velocity and isn't exactly making up with spin rate either (50th percentile).

Brewers vs Padres Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 7.5 but has since moved to 8. Milwaukee has gone 8-7 to the Under this year, surprisingly good for the seventh-highest rate of Unders on the season. However, they have gone Over in three of their last four.

The Padres have gone an even 8-8 on totals this year. They have gone Over in the last two games but prior to that, they had gone Over in just one of the previous seven.

As highlighted previously, Darvish has had a rather impressive track record against this current Brewers roster while Wade Miley has struggled rather convincingly. It would be expected that the Padres have to do the majority of the heavy lifting in terms of scoring.

But even if San Diego gets to Miley early and often, they will have the challenge of keeping the runs coming against Milwaukee's bullpen, which ranks third in the league in collective ERA at 3.20 ERA.

The wind is projected to blow left to right at 9 mph but both the temperature and humidity are projected to be modest and non-factors.

Brewers vs Padres game info

Brewers vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Wade Miley (1-1, 2.45 ERA): Miley has returned to the Brewers after stringing together two quality seasons with the Cubs and Reds. Last year, he pitched to a career-best 3.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, and his marks this season have been even better. In his last outing, he allowed three earned in five innings against the Diamondbacks.

Yu Darvish (0-1, 4.76 ERA): Darvish has been the Padres ace for two seasons now and earned a six-year extension in the offseason for his excellence. Last year, he maintained a 3.10 ERA, which was his second-best finish since 2016. Darvish had a great first outing (1 ER in 5 IP) but struggled in his last outing (5 ER in 6 1/3 IP).

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In 65 combined plate appearances, these Brewers have managed just a .143 average against Yu Darvish. Find more MLB betting trends for Brewers vs. Padres

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