It's Game 3 in the NLCS between the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals. The Cards trail 0-2 in the series and send their young ace Jack Flaherty to the mound, while the Nationals respond with three-time All-Star Stephen Strasburg.
From the first pitch to the final out we break down the odds and give out our best bets and predictions for this MLB postseason battle. **video
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS AT WASHINGTON NATIONALS (-130, 7 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
The 23-year-old Flaherty has been terrific this season and he gets off to fantastic starts. He has a 1.36 ERA with a batting average allowed of just .139 in the first inning of games this season.
Strasburg tends to be a bit shakier in the opening inning, recording an ERA of 4.36 and giving up 30 hits in 33 innings. Expect the Cardinals to get the most hits in the first inning at a very tidy +190 profit.
PICK: Most Hits in the First Inning [three-way] St. Louis (+190)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
Both Flaherty and Strasburg have been tearing it up lately. In his last 11 games (including three playoff outings) Strasburg is 5-1 with a 1.91 ERA and a WHIP of 0.85.
Flaherty has been even more impressive. Over his previous 18 starts he has a 1.19 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP. Don't overthink this one and ride the red-hot pitchers by taking the Under on the first five innings.
PICK: First Five Innings Under 3.5 (-110)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Cardinals outfielder Marcell Ozuna is having an excellent postseason, batting .310 with a pair of homers and three doubles in seven games. He also has a history of hitting the ball very well at Nationals Park, recording a .321 BA in 84 at bats since 2016. And folks, that's not all, he's also 14-44 (.318 BA) with three dingers and 9 RBI against Strasburg in his career.
All signs are pointing towards Ozuna having a good game and we like the Over 1.5 on his total bases whenever the player props open.
PICK: Total Bases Marcell Ozuna Over 1.5
FULL GAME TOTAL
The O/U for this game is set at a very low 7, but Under trends have ruled so far in October. Unders have cashed in 14 of 23 MLB postseason games, while the Nats and Cards have combined to go 10-5 to the Under.
And while both the Nationals and Cardinals have won with some timely hits in the postseason their overall stats at the plate have been awful. Washington is batting just .226 and plating 3.75 runs per game in the playoffs, while St. Louis has a BA of .207 and is scoring 3.86 runs per game.
When you consider that St. Louis erupted for 13 runs in one game (and ten runs in one inning during that game), you'll realize just how inept their hitting generally has been; in their other six postseason contests they've plated just 2.3 runs per game.
With the Under 7-0-1 in the last eight games head-to-head bet it again tonight.
PICK: Under 7 (-115)
FULL GAME SIDE
Expect the Cardinals to be extremely motivated for this matchup. Down 0-2 in this series after a pair of home games, this is practically a must-win situation for them. If they lose they'd have to win four games in a row against the Nationals - while going through Max Scherzer and Strasburg again.
As good as Strasburg is, Flaherty has been practically unhittable since the All-Star break, and the Cards have a clear advantage in the bullpen.
Cardinals relievers have a 3.82 ERA with a BAA of .219, while the Nats bullpen has an ERA of 5.66 with a BAA of .266.
St. Louis is 8-3 in it's last 11 road games and is 5-1 in the previous six meetings between these teams in Washington. Back them on the ML.
PICK: Moneyline St. Louis (+115)
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