Tonight, the Chicago Cubs will meet the Milwaukee Brewers for their second season series. This will be the first of a three-game weekend series. The two last met to open the season, when the Cubs won two of three. Since then, these two teams have gone in separate directions. The Brewers come in today with a record of 13-7, while the Cubs are 8-11 and fresh off a loss to the Atlanta Braves.
Will the Brewers provide the elixir for the Cubs to get back to their winning ways? Find out in Cubs vs. Brewers MLB picks and predictions for Friday, April 29.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for today's matchup were released this morning. The Brewers opened up as -140 favorites, with the Cubs at +120 the other way. Since then, Milwaukee took some money seeing most books, bringing them down to -145 on the moneyline. The total opened up a 7.5 and has been bet to a flat 8.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Cubs vs Brewers predictions
Picks made on 4/29/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Cubs vs Brewers game info
• Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Friday, April 29, 2022
• First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
• TV: MARQ, Bally Sports
Cubs vs Brewers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Kyle Hendricks (1-1, 3.98 ERA): At times last season, I got great value on the righty after he bounced back from a bumpy start. That said, he still had a pretty disappointing last season, finishing the year with an expected ERA at its highest number of his career. He's struggled out of the gate this season as well. Before his last start against Pittsburgh — where he went seven innings, giving up zero runs — Hendricks had failed to get through four innings in back-to-back starts. This isn't your father's Kyle Hendricks. He's getting older and indeed regressing some. However, I still see value in betting on him; it's just a matter of precisely what that value is.
Adrian Houser (1-2, 3.52 ERA): Houser was a solid starter for the Brewers last season. He was 10-6 with about a major league average ERA. But last year did come with a bit of a warning. His walk rate went to its highest level since 2018, and his strikeout rate continued to be unimpressive. In addition, Houser struggled against patient hitters, and you have to wonder if that will plague him again this season. Nevertheless, he's gotten the year off to about the start you'd expect, surrendering six runs in just over 13 innings.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Cubs: Andrelton Simmons (SS), David Bote (3B), Clint Fraizer (LF).
Brewers: Victor Caratini (C), Luis Urias (2B).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings between these two sides, including 4-0 to the Over in the previous four meetings in Milwaukee. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The biggest question that has to be answered for this one is which team is more equipped to hurt the other team's pitcher. That's generally the case in modern-day baseball, but it's even more apparent in a matchup that features two pitchers due for regression. I think the answer to that question is the Chicago Cubs.
As previously mentioned on the open, Adrian Houser is hurt the most by teams that are patient at the plate. He's not a big strikeout guy and doesn't have a significant amount of zone discipline. Instead, his success is predicated on inducing ground balls or hitters topping his breaking balls, forcing weak contact. The Cubs, as a team, have done a decent job of avoiding that with their hard-hit and barrel rate being above league average. But the most pressing stat in this matchup is their chase rate.
The Cubs rank 13th in the MLB in chase rate this season. Additionally, they rank 5th in strikeout rate. So, even if their offense has sputtered a bit in the last few games compared to how it began the season, you can't still count on them to make pitchers work for outs. Because of that, I think they force Houser into deep pitch counts and to give up extra baserunners. That's where the Cubs' timely hitting will come into play. Chicago leads the MLB with a batting average of .260 with RISP and has 84 RBIs in the positions.
My projections have this game at nearly a coin-flip with a slight edge to the Brewers. Because of that, I see significant value in the current prices for the Cubs. So, I'll be taking Chicago today.
Prediction: Cubs moneyline (+125 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The Over in this spot is one of my favorite plays. You have two pitchers due for regression, as previously mentioned. You have an offense in Milwaukee that struggled mightily to begin the year but has appeared to find its stride. You also have an offense in the Cubs due for another big outing.
I've talked about the Cubs' matchup advantage over the Brewers' pitching, but it's worth mentioning the other side. Hendricks has similar tendencies to Houser in that he's prone to walk batters. Additionally, the Brewers are patient at the plate, with the fifth-lowest chase rate in MLB. So, while they don't have the offensive firepower that the Cubs do, this one should quickly go Over if they can contribute a few runs.
My projections have this going Over the posted total nearly 75% of the time. That gives me a comfortable edge to take the Over.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
We will use what we've repeated throughout discussing this matchup as the handicap for our best bet here. Adrian Houser, his strikeout rate, and the Cubs' patience at the plate have led us to conclude that the Cubs’ hitters have an advantage here. Because of that, I'll be taking Houser Under 3.5 strikeouts, a prop available in various locations at plus money.
Houser has eclipsed this number just once this season, and it came against the team with the 5th highest chase rate in MLB (the Cardinals). While the data isn't limited for this year, it isn't for last year, and nearly all his lowest strikeout games came against teams with a low chase rate (like the Cubs).
Give me Houser under Ks here. I believe there's a decent enough edge to take this down to -110 and will gladly grab it at plus money.
Pick: Adrian Houser Under 3.5 strikeouts (+112)
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