The MLB World Tour: London Series continues Sunday with the St. Louis Cardinals taking on the Chicago Cubs.
Chicago won the first matchup of this two-game series in commanding fashion with a 9-1 victory in front of an enthusiastic London crowd.
I tailed Wainwright's strikeout prop for Saturday's game, but I'll be switching it up and fading Stroman on the mound for this matchup. Find out why in my free MLB picks for the Cubs vs Cardinals on Sunday, June 25.
Cubs vs Cardinals odds
Cubs vs Cardinals predictions
The Chicago Cubs will hand the ball over to RHP Marcus Stroman, who is in the midst of a career year. Stroman is 9-4 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.02 WHIP through 16 starts, but his underlying metrics paint a different picture... as the righty ranks in the 45th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit rate and xBA.
Even if his surface-level stats do not take a dip, his strikeouts certainly should as he ranks in the 45th percentile or lower in K percentage, Whiff rate, and Chase rate. This regression could take place against the St. Louis Cardinals, a team Stroman struggles against.
Through eight career starts against St. Louis, he is 1-4 with a 4.73 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Additionally, the Cardinals’ hitting is surely not the reason for their underwhelming performance this season.
This year, St. Louis ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS, and home runs. On top of all of that, the Cards rank seventh in the league in K rate when facing right-handed pitching.
Looking at Sunday’s projected starting lineup, seven of the nine St. Louis hitters possess a K rate south of 23% this season.
My best bet: Marcus Stroman Under 4.5 strikeouts (+105)
Cubs vs Cardinals same-game parlay
Stroman Under 4.5 Ks
Under 12.5
Cardinals ML
This same-game parlay builds upon each other. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let us look at the other two.
You may notice that the total is extremely high for an MLB game, which is a product of playing at a relatively smaller London Stadium and in hitter-friendly weather conditions. With that said, 12 still feels like an over-correction despite the Under cashing in the first matchup of this two-game series.
A great breakdown of this stadium by Derek Carty can be found here:
????/THREAD The #STLCards and #NextStartsHere play in London this weekend... and anyone who thinks they have any idea how this park is going to play is fooling themself.
— Derek Carty (@DerekCarty) June 23, 2023
Here's everything we DO and DON'T KNOW about London Stadium...
Lastly, Stroman is due for regression. Despite his strong surface-level stats, he ranks in the 45th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, and xBA.
However, even if this regression hits, I still like the Under considering that Chicago ranks in the bottom half of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG, and home runs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This game opened much closer to a pick ‘em before some steam brought up Chicago to –130. This movement makes sense, given that Stroman is a much stronger pitcher than Matthew Liberatore.
With that said, the expected regression from Stroman brings this game to a much closer playing field, especially given St. Louis’ stronger lineup. That brings us to the total, which has opened at a monstrous 13.5 and has since dropped to 12.
In this department, I once again re-route you to the twitter thread by Derek Carty above on London Stadium. Additionally, part of this drop is due to the first game of this series staying Under 14/14.5 depending on the number you got.
With that said, it still stayed Under 12, and I do not think there is enough change between these two games to think it will not do so once again.
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Trend to know
The Under is 13-2-1 in the Cardinals’ last 16 games following a loss. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Cardinals
Cubs vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | London Stadium, London, UK |
| Date: | Saturday, June 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Marcus Stroman (9-4, 2.28 ERA): It has been a terrific campaign for the right-handed hurler, who will look to keep it going against a team he has typically struggled against. His underlying metrics suggest that regression is looming, ranking in the 45th percentile or lower in Average Exit Velocity, HardHit%, and xBA.
Matthew Liberatore (1-2, 6.12 ERA): It has certainly not been smooth sailing for the left-hander in his sophomore campaign. Quite frankly, there is not a ton of optimism for him moving forward, although if he does have a turn-around performance, this below-average Cubs lineup is certainly a valid option for that to occur.
