The Chicago Cubs and Boston Red Sox face off at historic Fenway Park on Saturday.
MLB odds have the Cubs as slim -115 road favorites with the Over/Under at 8.5 for this interleague clash. Here are my best free Cubs vs. Red Sox predictions and MLB picks for April 27.
Cubs vs Red Sox prediction
My best bet
Cubs moneyline (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Both of these teams have banged-up rotations, which is why they are both starting young right-handers that have recently been used in the bullpen.
The Boston Red Sox will give the ball to Josh Winckowski, who pitched to a 5.89 ERA across 14 starts in 2022. He threw 84 1/3 innings last year almost entirely as a reliever and lowered his ERA to 2.88 with an xERA of 3.82. The righty owns a 4.20 ERA in 15 innings this year and he's coming off his first start, pitching 3 1/3 innings of one-run ball against the Pirates.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs are starting 24-year-old rookie Ben Brown, who entered this season as the No. 9 prospect in their system. He was rocked for six runs in 1 2/3 innings against the Rangers in his MLB debut but has settled into a groove ever since, allowing just nine hits and a pair of runs through 17 2/3 innings in his last five outings (three starts).
When it comes to hitting the ball, the Cubs have the edge. They are fifth in the majors in scoring (5.38 runs per game) and OPS (.330). Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 15th in runs per game (4.33) and 13th in OPS (.308), with those numbers plummeting to 3.27 and .616 at Fenway. This is a Boston lineup that strikes out at the fourth-highest rate in the majors (26.2%) and ranks among the worst 10 teams in batting average (.235) and hard-hit rate (37.4%).
I'm not sold on Winckowski being able to successfully make it through a lineup more than twice, and I have been impressed with Brown after an ugly debut. With the Cubs lineup also making better contact, I'll back them at close to a pick'em price.
Cubs vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)
Cubs moneyline
Rafael Devers Over 1.5 total bases
Mike Tauchman Over 0.5 hits
Rafael Devers began the season mired in a slump, which may have been due to a nagging shoulder injury. However, since coming off a short stint on the IL with a different issue, Devers has gone 7-for-13 at the dish over the last three games. The two-time Silver Slugger winner has slugged .570 with the platoon advantage since the start of the 2019 season.
Mike Tauchman is another left-handed hitter with the platoon edge in this contest. The Cubs outfielder has picked up a hit in eight of his last nine games and is batting .429 over that span.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Red Sox odds
Cubs vs Red Sox live odds
Cubs vs Red Sox opening odds
- Run line: Chicago -1.5 (+135) | Boston +1.5 (-165)
- Moneyline: Chicago -115 | Boston -105
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Cubs vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis
- The line opened with the Cubs at -115 and briefly went up to -125 before buyback on the home side brought it back down to the opening number.
- The Cubs have gone 17-7 with a run differential of +42 in their last 24 games.
- The Red Sox are just 3-8 at home with a run differential of -28.
- Boston continues to be the worst fielding team in the majors, committing an MLB-high 0.89 errors per game.
Cubs vs Red Sox trend
The Red Sox have cashed the moneyline in just 57 of their last 127 games (-22.75 Units / -14% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Red Sox
Cubs vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, 4-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MARQ, NESN |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Ben Brown (0-0, 3.72 ERA) |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Josh Winckowski (1-1, 4.20 ERA) |
Cubs vs Red Sox latest injuries
Cubs vs Red Sox weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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