The New York Mets will look to bounce back from a rare home loss as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks this afternoon.
Kodai Senga is off to another dominant start for New York, which is why my Diamondbacks vs. Mets predictions are taking the home side to win by multiple runs.
Let’s see how bettors can approach today’s matchup in my free MLB picks for Thursday, May 1.
Diamondbacks vs Mets prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Mets best bet: Mets -1.5 (+150 at BetMGM)
The Arizona Diamondbacks managed to hold on for a tight win on Wednesday, beating the New York Mets 4-3 after surviving a ninth-inning rally where New York scored two runs and had the winning runner in scoring position when the game ended. All that despite facing the Mets while they used an opener combined with a pitcher who hadn’t thrown in the majors in several seasons.
If that’s what it took to hand New York only its second home loss of the season, Arizona will have trouble replicating that result today. Kodai Senga, the 32-year-old NPB veteran who has dazzled in America since joining the Mets in 2023, takes the hill to continue his strong start.
The ghost forkball practitioner has posted a 2.74 ERA and a 1.178 WHIP in his MLB career. His signature pitch has not only led him to strike out 10.6 batters per nine innings but has also helped him keep the ball in the park and has held opposing batters to a .206 batting average.
After missing most of last season due to injuries, Senga is back in form in 2025. He’s 3-1 with a 1.26 ERA in 28 2/3 innings, allowing just one homer over his first five starts. In three of those starts, Senga has held opponents scoreless and has yet to give up more than two earned runs in any outing this year.
On name recognition alone, Thursday’s pitching matchup looks like a banger, as Arizona will turn to Zac Gallen, one of the best starting pitchers in the National League over the last three years. However, he's off to a surprisingly slow start this season.
Gallen has a 5.57 ERA in 32 1/3 innings of work. His walk rate has increased to 4.2 per nine innings, continuing a concerning year-over-year climb for the second straight season. He has also been giving up more fly balls and a higher OPS than in any other recent season, and those hard-hit balls in the air have led him to five homers.
Both lineups were largely held in check on Wednesday, a rare event for these teams in 2025. But while Senga will continue that trend and befuddle Arizona yet again, this isn’t a good spot for Gallen to figure things out.
While I expect Gallen to revert to his true form eventually, the star-studded Mets will hit him hard on the way to a comfortable win at home.
Diamondbacks vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets -1.5
Under 8.5
Kodai Senga 5+ strikeouts
I expect a dominant performance from Senga today.
After seeing these teams play a tight 4-3 game on Wednesday night, I think Senga and Gallen are more than capable of holding even these offenses in check at pitcher-friendly Citi Field.
But Senga will have the best of the battle. While his strikeout rate is down, he is averaging 10.6 per nine innings for his MLB career. He’ll play closer to that number going forward, so I’m happy to take advantage of lower strikeout totals available on Senga.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Mets odds
Diamondbacks vs Mets live odds
Diamondbacks vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +125 | New York -150
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-165) | New York -1.5 (+140)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (+110) | Under 8 (-130)
Diamondbacks vs Mets trend
The Mets have covered the run line in three of Senga’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Mets.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 5-1-2025 |
| First pitch | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ARID, SNY |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Zac Gallen (1-4, 5.57 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Kodai Senga (3-1, 1.26 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Mets latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Mets weather
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