The New York Mets will attempt to build on their eight-game home winning streak as they host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night.
Both teams are fond of playing high-scoring games this season, and I’ll be taking the Over in my Diamondbacks vs. Mets predictions for tonight.
Let’s take a closer look at this matchup in my free MLB picks for Wednesday, April 30.
Diamondbacks vs Mets prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Mets best bet: Over 8.5 (-105 at DraftKings)
Once again, the New York Mets offense showed up big on Monday, powering an 8-3 win for the home team. Overall, the Mets are now averaging 4.83 runs per game after a relatively slow start, and their lineup is looking deeper and more powerful as the weather warms up.
You might think that this run of massive scoring outputs is likely to come to an end tonight, as New York faces off against 2021 Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes. Certainly, the four-time All-Star is a step up in competition over the starters that New York has teed off against as of late, but the 30-year-old veteran isn’t having his best performance early in 2025.
Burnes has made five starts this year, but has compiled just 26.2 innings of work in those appearances. His 4.05 ERA is higher than his full-season mark in any season since 2019, and Burnes is struggling with his control, walking 4.1 batters per nine innings. Combined with a strikeout rate that has been slowly dropping for the last five years, Burnes now has a K/BB ratio of just over 2-to-1, the lowest of his career.
So while Burnes should continue to be highly effective in his first season with the Diamondbacks, Arizona doesn’t seem to be getting the elite Cy Young candidate that he looked like in each of the past five seasons. The Mets aren’t likely to make Burnes’ numbers look any better, either, especially the way Pete Alonso (.346, 7 HR) has been hitting the ball in the middle of the New York lineup.
But even the Mets lineup hasn’t been as prolific as the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona is averaging 5.28 runs per game, third-best in the majors after a month of play. The Diamondbacks are hitting to a .772 OPS overall this season – 65 points better than league average – and have hit 40 homers, a great number for any team that isn’t the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers.
Arizona will face an interesting test on Wednesday night, as the Mets are starting with an opener in Huascar Brazoban. While Brazoban was solid in two scoreless innings of work in this role on April 14 against the Minnesota Twins, this obviously isn’t an ideal situation for New York.
But the bulk of the New York innings are expected to be pitched by the relatively unknown Brandon Waddell. The 30-year-old last appeared in the majors in 2021, and has only made 11 appearances total at the MLB level, none as a starter. In that time, Waddell compiled a 5.68 ERA in 12.2 innings of work.
That’s not a history that gives me much confidence in Waddell shutting down a dynamic and deep Diamondbacks offense. Combine that with how the Mets have been scoring, and I don’t think we’re in store for a pitching duel. I’m backing the Over in tonight’s game.
Diamondbacks vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Mets moneyline
Huascar Brazoban Under 1.5 strikeouts
I like the Over as my best bet tonight, but I’m not going to ignore the other obvious trend this evening. The Mets have the best record in the majors, are 13-1 at home, and have won 10 of their last 12 games overall. Yes, the Diamondbacks have an advantage in the pitching matchup tonight, but does that even matter against a Mets lineup that has scored 34 runs in its last three games? I’ll take New York to win in my SGP.
However, I’m also taking Mets opener Huascar Brazoban to come in Under his strikeout total of 1.5. That may seem risky, but Brazoban has only gone one inning in each of his last six appearances, and only went two innings in his previous usage as an opener. In his last 11 appearances – including that opening stint – Brazoban only struck out more than one batter once. In what should be another 1-2 inning stint, the Under looks to be a safe bet.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Mets odds
Diamondbacks vs Mets live odds
Diamondbacks vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -112 | New York -108
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+145) | New York +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-108) | Under 8.5 (-112)
Diamondbacks vs Mets trend
The Over is 6-0 in Arizona’s last six games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Mets.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Wednesday, 4-30-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ARID, SNY |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Corbin Burnes (0-1, 4.05 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Huascar Brazobán (1-0, 1.56 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Mets latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Mets weather
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