Diamondbacks vs Phillies Predictions, Picks, Odds: Nola Stands Tall In Close Out Game

The Arizona Diamondbacks and Philadelphia Phillies meet in the City of Brotherly Love with Philly one win away from a second straight World Series.

With that said, this series should already be over. The Phillies headed to Arizona with a decisive 2-0 lead, and after the Diamondbacks won the first game, it looked like Philly had the second in the bag.

However, Arizona had other plans and late-inning heroics that would even things up. The game following was a convincing win by Philadelphia; it took the lead early and never looked back, finishing things with a 6-1 win. Now, here we are. 

What are the best MLB picks for this Game 6 matchup? Find out as we dissect tonight's MLB odds in our MLB playoff predictions for Monday, October 23.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies odds

Diamondbacks vs Phillies Game 6 odds

Diamondbacks vs Phillies series odds

Team
Phillies	-170	-172	-180	-190	-175
Diamondbacks	+135	+140	+160	+160	+145

Diamondbacks vs Phillies predictions

It's Aaron Nola on the mound again in the playoffs and I don't know how we can do anything but back him in this spot. 

Zach Wheeler has been devastatingly good for the Philadelphia Phillies over the last month, but Nola has been even better than the ace. The numbers don't lie, and they tell the story perfectly. He's struck out 7+ in four of his last five starts, allowed fewer than five hits and two earned runs in three of those, and has pitched at least 5 2/3 in all five.

That last one is where we're focusing tonight. I'm perplexed to see his outs recorded prop at 16.5, but I'll happily take it. He's gone Over this number in five straight starts, and it's tough to see that changing here.

The synopsis of this handicap can best be described as it's not broken, so why fix it? Nola has navigated through some of the best offensive lineups in baseball this postseason — including the best in the Braves — and gone Over this number. 

We've talked about the Arizona Diamondbacks' youth and eagerness at the plate to get the big hit this postseason, and yet again, it plays a part here. Is it going to be this team in this spot — at home, one win away from the World Series — that causes Nola the most issues of anyone he's faced recently? It's hard to see it.

This analysis is rinse and repeat, but it's as solid as ever in this spot. Arizona has been swinging more and more this postseason, and consequently, it has chased pitches more.

Nola has a flat-out elite chase rate that ranks in the Top 4% of the league. That aspect plays directly into Nola's hands. The last time he faced this D-backs team in this series, he got contact on just 30 of his 85 pitches. He struck out seven and looked like he could have gone another inning. 

Nola's curveball-changeup combination makes him a difficult pitcher to stay balanced on. It's something he's learned in this postseason, particularly in this series.

The changeup isn't thrown a ton, but it's turned into a devastating put-away pitch, producing close to a 33% whiff rate. It was the pitch that produced the most foul balls, swings, and misses in the first meeting of the series.

Trust what we've seen this postseason, and trust Nola to deliver yet again as he sends his team to the World Series. The youth of the D-backs and the Philly environment that has pushed things in their favor so often this postseason will be too much to overcome.

My best bet: Aaron Nola Over 16.5 outs (-130 at bet365)

Diamondbacks vs Phillies same-game parlay

Aaron Nola Over 16.5 outs

Aaron Nola to record the win

Brandon Marsh to hit a home run

30% boost available

+2,500 +3,250 at bet365

In what could be the final game of the NLCS, we're going for a monster cash by taking our best bet and pairing it with two other legs. If made at bet365, you can also use a profit boost to increase the odds by 30% for an even bigger cash.

The first of these is self-explanatory and highly correlated. I expect Nola to go deep into this game, and this Phillies lineup is too good not to get a few runs across in that timeframe. Given the above handicap, there's no reason why I shouldn't think Nola wouldn't exit the game with the lead.

The last leg here is a massive value play. He's had three straight games with hits over an exit velocity of 103, and one of those hits would have been a homer at the Bank.

Oh yeah, he gets at least a few looks at Merrill Kelly tonight, who throws fastballs over 50% of the time — Marsh has the second-highest hard-hit rate against the fastball on the Phillies roster.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Diamondbacks vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I want to avoid laying north of -180 to back the Phillies here, but you lean that way. It gets scary for Philly if they can't take care of business tonight, and Philly knows that, so I expect you'll see a sense of urgency from the veteran group.

I made the Phillies a -164 favorite here, and with that in mind, there's probably some value backing this Arizona team. However, I can't get there.

We've talked about it countless times in these articles, but there's a reason Philadelphia is undefeated at home during these playoffs. Getting them in this spot with just one win away from the World Series makes them a tough fade. It also doesn't hurt that they'll have the best pitcher of these playoffs on the mound.

According to Covers Consensus, Philly took 78% of the bets at publication and you can understand why. We've all seen what this team has done in front of their home crowd in the playoffs. 

There are some strong Under indicators here, and I grabbed Under 8 for a unit at -115 over at FanDuel. 

On one side, I've spoken about Nola, how good he's been, and why I expect that to continue. On the other hand, I don't expect Merrill Kelly to be overwhelmed by the moment. He's already made one postseason start at the Bank, so he should be prepared for what the environment will throw at him.

He'll also have a short leash; it will be an all-hands-on-deck for the Diamondbacks in an elimination game. With that in mind, don't expect the cascading of runs that Philly has been able to do to so many teams at home. 

Playing the Under here is bucking a recent trend, however. In the four combined starts of both pitchers, all of their games have gone Over. However, this game is unique because it's the first elimination game for any team of those four most recent starts.   

Trend to know

Aaron Nola has gone at least 5 2/3 innings in all three of his postseason starts this year. Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs Phillies

Diamondbacks vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Merrill Kelly (1-1, 3.00 ERA): This series has been unfortunate for Kelly because he's been forced to make both starts in front of the raucous Philly environment. Although he's not the ace of this group, he's been the most consistent. Of his last 14 starts to end the regular season, he only gave up 4+ earned runs twice. In his first postseason start against the Dodgers, he was close to dominant when he posted six scoreless innings. He followed that up with a disappointing start in this series when he allowed four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings.

Aaron Nola (3-0, 0.96 ERA): When we first wrote about Nola starting the playoffs, we talked about his expected ERA vs. his actual ERA and how that indicated some unluckiness. We also suggested that he could get some positive regression in the postseason, and boy, has that ever happened. If the Phillies bring home the crown, Nola could have an MVP case on his hands if this continues. He's been unbelievable, allowing just 12 hits and two earned runs in three combined starts. 

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