The New York Mets host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 5 of the NLCS at Citi Field on Friday. MLB odds have Los Angeles as a moderate -140 favorite, while the total sits at 7.5.
I’ve compiled my three best MLB player props for Game 5. As always, make sure you keep an eye on the odds and available pricing due to the ever-changing nature of the prop market.
Here are my free MLB picks and Dodgers and Mets predictions for player props on October 18.
Dodgers vs Mets NLCS Game 5 props
- David Peterson Over 3.5 hits allowed (+105 at DraftKings)
- Mookie Betts Over 0.5 hits (-220 at DraftKings)
- Will Smith Over 0.5 hits (-185 at DraftKings)
Picks made on 10-18 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Dodgers vs Mets props
Prop bet #1: David Peterson Over 3.5 hits allowed
The New York Mets’ backs are against the wall in Game 5, and I don’t think it will help their cause that left-hander David Peterson is taking the mound.
Don’t get me wrong, he did well to escape the regular season with a 10-3 record and 2.90 ERA through 21 starts. With that said, he was perhaps the luckiest pitcher in baseball from an analytical standpoint. Across that stretch, Peterson posted a 1.29 WHIP, 4.58 xERA, and .264 xBA.
He also ranked in the 35th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. That luck is going to run out, which is what we saw in Game 1 of this series as Peterson surrendered three runs (two earned) on four hits in under three innings of work.
I expect a similar outing on Friday evening against a Los Angeles Dodgers team that boasts a .343 BA through 72 combined career plate appearances against the southpaw.
Prop bet #2: Mookie Betts Over 0.5 hits
If we are fading Peterson, then a correlated outcome would be for some Dodgers hitters to thrive as well. Enter Mookie Betts, who will be one of two Los Angeles hitters to back in Game 5.
There is one thing that Peterson does well as a pitcher, and that is force hitters to hit ground balls. This season, he ranked in the 85th percentile in ground ball rate.
With that said, if you don’t hit many grounders, then you should be able to pick Peterson apart. Betts ranks first in all of MLB in ground-ball rate, which takes away Peterson’s main strength in this specific matchup.
Betts has also been on fire, recording 10 hits over the past seven games. He boasts a .333 BA over that stretch.
Prop bet #3: Will Smith Over 0.5 hits
The other Dodgers hitter to back on Friday is Will Smith, who ranks second on Los Angeles (and 12th in the league) in ground-ball rate. Subsequently, Smith is 2-for-3 in his career against Peterson with a single and a double.
Like Betts, Smith enters this contest in good form, having recorded five hits over the past six games. A strong hitter, the Dodgers’ catcher ended the regular season ranked in the top half of the league in xwOBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate.
Not intended for use in MA.
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