Game 2 between the Los Angeles Dodgers (56-40) and Texas Rangers (58-40) goes down Saturday afternoon in Arlington.
The visiting side grabbed an 11-5 victory in Game 1 on Friday to make it nine wins in the last 11 games. That snapped a six-game Rangers winning streak since the resumption of play after the All-Star Break.
MLB odds list this one as close to a pick ‘em, but I favor one side over the other in this spot and therefore see a sliver of value.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for the Dodgers vs. Rangers on Saturday, July 22.
Dodgers vs Rangers odds
Dodgers vs Rangers predictions
Texas Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning is a curious case study because his results have been remarkably productive this season (8-2, 2.82 ERA) despite his underlying metrics appearing entirely underwhelming,
The 6-foot-4 hurler doesn’t throw hard (ninth percentile fastball velocity, averaging 91.1 mph) and doesn’t generate much movement, either (14th percentile fastball spin rate, seventh percentile curve spin rate). Since he throws soft and straight, it’s no surprise he ranks in the 15th percentile in xBA and 27th percentile in xERA/xwOBA while generating few swings and misses (seventh percentile whiff%, eighth percentile K%).
What’s stupefying is that he’s managed to produce excellent surface-level statistics despite his profile leaving plenty of room for error. He’ll test his luck on Saturday against a Los Angeles Dodgers lineup that destroys right-handed pitching, posting a 141 wRC+ and .377 wOBA across its last 10 games.
I’m looking to fade the 28-year-old right-hander on Saturday in a very tough matchup. It’s all about finding the right bet in which to do that. The Dodgers aren’t a bad play on the moneyline, with most books offering -120 at the time of this writing. Let's analyze their pitching situation in this spot to determine if there’s value.
The Boys in Blue will counter with rookie Bobby Miller on the mound. The 24-year-old right-hander is the opposite of Dunning in that he’s been underperforming his metrics — his 3.75 xERA and 3.59 FIP are both well below his 4.25 actual ERA.
He stands in stark contrast to his counterpart in that he throws absolute gas, averaging 99.2 mph on his fastball. He complements this heater with a plus changeup, a curveball that ranks in the 89th percentile in spin rate, and a slider that has been mostly ineffective.
Miller’s profile is enough to make me believe the Dodgers will have a slight starting pitching advantage on Saturday. They’ve been mashing at the plate against right-handed pitching as well, and they face a Rangers team with a catastrophic bullpen. The edges are slight in a matchup like this between two first-place teams, but there’s enough going in Los Angeles’ favor to make me a buyer.
There’s still -115 available and I’ll grab that. I’d play this line up to -130.
My best bet: Dodgers moneyline (-115)
Dodgers vs Rangers same-game parlay
Dodgers ML (-120)
Dodgers TT Over 4.5 (-115)
Betts 2+ total bases (-110)
Rather than swing for the fences with a low-probability SGP, this little three-legger features correlated plays surrounding my best as outlined above on the Dodgers moneyline. The first prop that I will add to that will be to take Los Angeles to score at least five runs. The Boys in Blue have cleared this bar in 10 of their last 11 games and face a starting pitcher whose profile reeks of regression. If they’re going to win this game, then they’re likely going to be doing a bit of damage against Dunning.
The other leg that I’ll be adding is Mookie Betts to record 2+ total bases. The Dodgers star is crushing the ball even more than normal this year, posting a career-best .295 ISO and .401 wOBA with his second-best career wRC+ (155). He’s averaged 3.1 total bases in his last 10 games and flashed in Game 1 with a double and two walks, so I have no doubt about his current form. That brings our final SGP odds to +255.
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Dodgers vs Rangers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Dodgers are a -120 favorite at most books while the best comeback currently available on the Rangers is +110.
There’s a reason why Los Angeles has opened as a slight favorite here on the road. Dave Roberts’ side have been road warriors lately, winning five of their seven games during this current road trip.
Los Angeles has won at least two games in each of its last four series, and I like its odds of making that five straight.
The total is set at 9 in this matchup. I don’t have as much conviction in this total as I did in Game 1 when my best bet was on the Over 9.5.
It’s difficult for me to consider an Under here when both teams have been so potent against right-handed pitching, and both have been Over teams all year.
Texas and Los Angeles have combined to go 104-76 O/U on the year — and that’s no fluke. Both lineups are lethal, and both mash right-handed pitching. The Rangers have the second-highest wRC+ (119) against righties on the year, while the Dodgers aren’t far behind with a 113 wRC+ (fourth).
Across the last 10 games, those numbers somehow become even more impressive. Los Angeles has an absurd 141 wRC+ while Texas has a 131 wRC+.
Both bullpens have struggled this year — Los Angeles has a 4.21 ERA in relief while Texas’ much-maligned bullpen has mustered just a 4.42 ERA.
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Trend to know
The Dodgers have won nine of their last 11 meetings against the Rangers. Find more MLB betting trends for Dodgers vs. Rangers
Dodgers vs Rangers game info
| Location: | Globe Life Field, Arlington, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, July 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSN, SNLA |
Starting pitchers
Bobby Miller (5-1, 4.25 ERA): Miller has stepped up in a big way for a shorthanded rotation. Across 48 ? innings to start his Major League career, the rookie has a notable 3.75 xERA and 3.59 FIP. He’s made enough batters miss (23.2% K-rate) while effectively limiting walks (7.9% BB-rate) and has solid numbers across the board. Last time out he allowed an earned run and three hits in a no-decision against the New York Mets.
Dane Dunning (8-2, 2.82 ERA): Dunning has been a revelation for the Rangers this season. The right-hander has allowed more than three earned runs just twice in his last 10 starts. The underlying metrics aren’t a fan of his breakout as his 4.72 xERA in particular looms large, sitting nearly two full runs above his actual ERA. He doesn’t strike anyone out (15.8% K-rate) but also rarely issues free passes (6.3% BB-rate).
