The San Francisco Giants will try to get back to .500 on the year as they visit the struggling Chicago Cubs in the second game of their series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night.
San Francisco (36-37) took the first game of the series 7-6 last night, but it is the Cubs (34-39) who are slight home favorites according to the latest MLB odds.
My free Giants vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks take a look at a matchup that features two pitchers who are performing well this season.
Giants vs Cubs prediction
My best bet
Under 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Few pitchers in the majors have faced more hard luck as of late than Justin Steele, who gets the ball tonight for the Chicago Cubs. Steele has given up just two earned runs over his last four starts, posting an immaculate 0.72 ERA during that stretch. However, a lack of run support — along with six unearned runs allowed — means Steele only went 0-1 in that stretch, while Chicago posted a 1-3 record in those games.
Steele is having a solid season despite his 0-3 record. His FIP of 3.75 shows that he’s not just getting lucky, but pitching well even when we consider those added runs that were charged to his fielders. Steele has always been good at keeping the ball in the park, and though his numbers aren’t quite as strong as last year — when he earned some Cy Young Award consideration — his 1.093 WHIP and 1.1 home runs per nine innings are still numbers that suggest he’ll have more success as the year goes on.
The San Francisco Giants are countering with Logan Webb, who is 6-5 with a 3.02 ERA and an even more impressive 2.74 FIP, and is once again on pace to be one of the few pitchers to eclipse the 200-inning mark in 2024. Webb has stellar control — averaging just 1.9 walks per nine innings — and has allowed only four homers in 92 1/3 frames.
If this game had taken place last season, this would have been considered a premier National League pitcher’s duel. Despite some slight regression on both sides, tonight’s game deserves to be seen in a similar light, as neither pitcher has seen their underlying numbers change much from 2023.
This isn’t a game with high-powered offenses, either. The Giants have been league-average, scoring 4.41 runs per game, while the Cubs have been markedly worse at 4.16 runs per outing. Wrigley Field plays neutrally in terms of run scoring, and an expected breeze to left field shouldn’t dramatically impact the game.
Yet despite all this, bookmakers are pegging tonight’s game in Chicago as a relatively high-scoring affair. I’m counting on Webb and Steele to handle these mediocre lineups and hit the Under tonight.
Giants vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 9.5
Giants moneyline
Patrick Bailey Over 1.5 total bases
Along with taking the Under tonight, I’ll pick the Giants to win outright on the road. The Cubs have lost four of five and have struggled to win at all when Steele takes the mound, so I like San Francisco tonight.
I’ll round out my same-game parlay with a bet on Patrick Bailey to pick up at least two bases. The switch-hitting Bailey has picked up at least two hits in each of his last two games and has reached the two total bases mark in three of his last six. He also has a much higher SLG on the road (.462) than at home (.408).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Cubs odds
Giants vs Cubs live odds
Giants vs Cubs opening odds
- Run line: San Francisco +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Moneyline: San Francisco +101 | Chicago -109
- Over/Under: Over 10 | Under 10
Giants vs Cubs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Both the Cubs and the Giants have lost approximately four units on the moneyline for backers in 2024.
- Chicago is 1-8 in Steele’s starts this season, while San Francisco has gone 7-8 when Webb pitches.
- The Over holds a 39-32 edge when the Giants have played this year, while the Under is 39-31 in games involving the Cub.
- The Giants have played to a total of 9 or less in 11 of Webb’s 15 starts, while the Cubs have done the same in six of Steele’s nine outings.
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Giants vs Cubs trend
The Under is 9-1 in Chicago’s last 10 games overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Cubs
Giants vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-18-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSBA, MARQ |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Logan Webb (6-5, 3.02 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Justin Steele (0-3, 3.65 ERA) |
Giants vs Cubs latest injuries
Giants vs Cubs weather
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