An in-state rivalry wraps up tonight under the prime-time lights as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants clash at Dodger Stadium.
In my Sunday Night Baseball player props and MLB picks for June 15th, I see considerable value in a couple of Dodgers stars at the plate.
Giants vs Dodgers Sunday Night Baseball props
Hernandez HR (+320)- Pages o1.5 TB (+120)
Adames o1.5 H+R+RBI (-109)
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Giants vs Dodgers props for Sunday Night Baseball
Teoscar Hernandez to hit a home run (+320 at Caesars)
There are numerous reasons to like Teoscar Hernandez to do damage tonight, but let’s start with one of the most straightforward: San Francisco Giants left-hander Kyle Harrison.
Teo has a thing for lefties, hitting them quite hard. Entering this matchup, only one player with at least 45 plate appearances has a higher isolated power rating against southpaws — Aaron Judge. Pretty good company.
Harrison is almost exclusively a two-pitch thrower, with the fastball and slider making up just over 90% of his pitching arsenal. That fastball-heavy approach will do Hernandez just fine as he ranks third among Los Angeles Dodgers in hard-hit rate against the four-seam heater this season and second in most hard-hit metrics. Additionally, he’s one of the few LA players with favorable metrics against the slurve this season.
Of Teo's 13 homers this season, eight have come against lefties. Facing a pitcher with a barrel rate issue who should serve up some favorable pitches, we like him to improve on that rate.
Andy Pages Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at Caesars)
We’re sticking with a similar theme here, attacking Harrison's pitching arsenal.
The BAT projects Andy Pages for 1.8 bases, noting that the plus-money price here gives it the distinction of a five-star bet. It also notes that Pages will benefit from being a right-handed batter, as Dodger Stadium is the second-best ballpark for right-handed home runs. Lastly, it also notes that temperatures in the upper 80s should increase ball carry and offense.
Pages has performed well against the slurve. So far this season, in a small sample size, he’s been perfect against it with a 1.000 batting average. That’s been validated by an expected batting average of .826.
Now, we must acknowledge that this data set is limited to a small number of plate appearances. Still, he also performed strongly against this pitch throughout his career, posting above-average numbers in 2024. It’s enough for me to take a stab here, given the plus-money price.
Willy Adames Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-109 at Caesars)
Dodgers hurler Dustin May has had a rough season, toting a barrel rate, a hard-hit rate below the league average, and a chase and whiff rate among the lowest they've been in his career.
Enter Willy Adames.
He, too, has had a disappointing season and looks nowhere near worth the $182 million contract price the Giants paid him during the offseason. A big part of those struggles is a K rate that’s the second-highest of his career, along with a whiff rate that’s the highest.
His .095 batting average and 55% whiff rate vs. changeups have been even more of an issue. Not good. The nice thing for him? He won’t see much tonight.
Breaking pitches lead the way for May, and Adames has posted a hard-hit rate in the 75th percentile against them. With that in mind, Adames will be in a good position to put his imprint on this game, and this is the best way to capture that belief.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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