The Baltimore Orioles are struggling and draw San Francisco Giants starter Blake Snell tonight at Camden Yards.
However, I examine why Snell won't be long for this start in my Giants vs. Orioles predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, September 17.
Giants vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Blake Snell Under 17.5 outs (-120 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Blake Snell is a fantastic pitcher. A two-time Cy Young winner, the southpaw is one of baseball's preeminent strikeout artists and has rounded into form with the San Francisco Giants after a rough start to his tenure.
Still, he's a tumultuous pitcher who can lose command at any moment. Since his season was delayed after signing late, and he spent time on the IL, Snell hasn't thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. However, no qualified starter has a higher walk rate than his 10.9%, which is actually an improvement on last year's mark — when he won his second Cy Young — of 13.3%.
He consistently puts runners on base but his strikeout prowess helps mitigate danger, as his 33% K rate is likewise higher than any qualified SP.
This also means he throws a lot of pitches, particularly when he's less efficient. The veteran lefty was pulled after just one inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks two starts ago because he threw 42 pitches in the opening frame.
He simply didn't have it.
Tonight, he travels to Camden Yards, and while the Baltimore Orioles have hit the skids recently, they still have one of the best lineups vs. left-handed pitching in MLB. The Orioles rank fifth in wRC+ (113) and second in home runs (56) in these matchups, with switch-hitters Anthony Santander and Adley Rutschman and fellow lefty Gunnar Henderson being the biggest culprits.
I don't particularly like taking either side of the moneyline, as Snell can still give San Francisco the edge over five inefficient innings, so I'm eyeing this prop instead. Snell's been very good of late, but his away ERA of 4.46 is still unsightly despite throwing a no-hitter in Cincinnati earlier in the campaign. Fade the lefty tonight in Baltimore.
Giants vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Blake Snell Under 17.5 outs
Under 8.5
Anthony Santander Over 0.5 total bases
The total is set at 7.5, so I'm tacking on another run with the alt total for my second leg. Even if Snell exits early, it's unlikely that he'll allow a boatload of runs in doing so. Similarly, Orioles starter Albert Suarez has been very effective in the rotation and has been stretched out to 100 pitches on occasion, so he's no longer in danger of exiting early with a middling pitch count.
Neither bullpen is especially impressive, which adds reason to taking the alt Under on the total while also boosting Santander's chances at getting one measly hit. With Snell out before finishing six innings, Santander will maintain the platoon advantage against whoever enters due to his switch-hitting ability. And his total bases prop is a low 0.5, likely because Snell often suppresses damage. The same can't be said of San Francisco's relievers.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Giants vs Orioles odds
Giants vs Orioles live odds
Giants vs Orioles opening odds
- Moneyline: San Francisco -120 | Baltimore +100
- Run line: San Francisco -1.5 (+165) | Baltimore +1.5 (-200)
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-105) | Under 8 (-115)
Giants vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The moneyline has mostly remained steady, with some books offering -125 and Pinnacle offering -110.
- After money came in on the Under, the total dropped from 8.0 to 7.5 across the board.
- Humidity in the forecast tends to favor hitters, making things more difficult for pitchers like Snell.
Giants vs Orioles trend
The Orioles have covered the first five innings (F5) run line in 37 of their last 66 games at home (+1.95 Units / 2% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Orioles.
Giants vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-17-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC Sports Bay Area, MASN2 |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Blake Snell (3-3, 3.52 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Albert Suárez (8-5, 3.39 ERA) |
Giants vs Orioles latest injuries
Giants vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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