Giants vs Padres Picks and Predictions: Tight Divisional Clash in SoCal

The San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants will meet in the second game of a four-game series tonight, after the Padres took the opener 2-1

The Giants are in a midseason spiral, having dropped eight of 10 to fall out of the playoff picture. At the head of the spiral has been their offensive struggles, particularly getting timely hits, as they now have the seventh-worst batting average with runners in scoring position. 

The Padres haven't been much better, with just three wins in their last 10 games.

Find out who will take game two with our Giants vs. Padres MLB picks and predictions for Friday, July 8.

Giants vs Padres odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Giants opened up as a solid -130 favorite, and they've only taken more money since. As of publication, they've fallen to around -150, with the Padres returning at around +140. The total opened up at 7.5 and has remained there.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Giants vs Padres predictions

• Prediction: Giants ML (+135)
• Prediction: F5 Under 4 (-130)
• Best bet: Neither team to scores 4 runs (+300)

Picks made on 7/8/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Giants vs Padres game info

• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Friday, July 8, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports Bay Area, Bally Sports San Diego

Giants vs Padres betting preview

Starting pitchers

Sam Long (0-1, 1.78 ERA): Long profiles as the opener in bullpen games for the Giants and is also often a late-game reliever. The innings are limited but he's only given up more than one earned run in 18 appearances this season. 

He doesn't strike out many but rarely finds himself in a situation where he needs a strikeout with a hard-hit rate, exit velocity, and barrel rate, all ranking near the top of the league.

Blake Snell (0-5, 5.13 ERA): Snell's season has been as interesting as any pitcher. Does he deserve to be an 0-5 with a 5.13 ERA? Not even close. His xERA is around 3.50 and he’s unlucky not to have at least one win. 

Snell relies on batters who chase pitches, and when he faces a more patient team, he doesn't get that and finds some trouble. His hard-hit rate is around league average, but his exit velocity and barrel rate are near the bottom of the league. 

Weather

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Key injuries

Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Under is 5-1 in the Padres' last six during the second game of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Padres

Giants vs Padres picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

I'm not necessarily running to back either of these teams, as their recent struggles tell the story and make either hard to side with, but I’m rolling with the value on the Giants.

Given the expectation of it being a bullpen day, it's difficult to predict how their pitchers will match up against the Padres. 

We know that Long is well suited to get off to a strong start for one or two innings. He does an excellent job of inducing soft contact, and the Padres have the highest soft contact rate in baseball. 

We also know it's logical to assume the Padres will have issues scoring today. They rank near the bottom of the league in first-inning scores and haven't scored in the first inning in three games. Generally, they'll get most of their runs in the middle innings, which suggests they rely on multiple looks at a pitcher to cash in. They won't have that luxury today. 

The other side of this matchup is Blake Snell, but this is a bad matchup. 

The Giants are some of the most patient hitters at the plate, fourth in both chase and swing rate. As we've spoken about previously, much of Snell's success is built on his ability to get to teams to chase. What's happened this season when he hasn't? You get situations like you had against the Brewers — the only team Snell has seen with a Top-5 swing rate — when they nabbed him for three earned runs in six innings. Based on the hard-hit rate, he was lucky it wasn't for more.

This isn't the strongest of edges, but it's a worthy one, given that two teams are going in poor directions. Unfortunately, you can't rely on either of these teams for much now. So, let's at least ride with the one with a distinct edge and are available for plus money. 

Prediction: Giants moneyline (+135 at FanDuel)

Over/Under analysis

For this, we'll have to follow the trends. The Under is 5-1 in the Padres' last six during game two of a series, and the Under is 6-2-2 in the Giants' previous 10 vs. the NL West. Both of those are in play today, and we'll follow them.

Even though I like the Giants matchup, it's difficult to predict them to score many runs. The offense has been anemic for a month, highlighted by their struggles with runners in scoring position. Additionally, San Francisco has the third-longest MBA in the majors. So, it’s struggling to get hits and not putting quality at-bats together. 

The Giants will be able to get some base traffic because of their patience at the plate, but it's difficult to expect much scoring. As previously noted, their struggles in high-leverage situations tell that story. 

I can't make a grand proclamation on how the Padres’ lineup will fare today, knowing they’ll see the Giants’ starter for a maximum of two innings. But, like I talked about at the onset, the Padres don't have a track record of hitting a pitcher too well the first time in the lineup. The bullpen nature of this game makes me feel comfortable that this one will go low. 

It's a game like this where I like to lean heavily on my projections. I'm calculating the most significant edge in the first five market. I have this going Under around 58% of the time, enough for me to jump in confidently.

Prediction: First-five innings Under 4 (-130 at DraftKings)

Best bet

This might be a value play as much as anything, but the above handicap also follows the numbers.

In my personal simulations, neither team scored four runs at around 40% of the time. That suggested that this number should be about half its price. 

I like the angle of the Padres having to work through multiple looks of pitchers throughout this game, given their struggles on their first view of pitchers. 

I also like the angle of the Giants' issues with runners in scoring position. Generally, I think they'll find enough success against Snell to sneak out the win, but I'm not nearly as confident in that as I am in this one being low scoring.

I will take a swing here and say it's very low scoring. So, the value is on our side. 

Pick: Neither team to score 4 runs (+300 at DraftKings)

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