Giants vs Red Sox Prediction, Picks, and Odds for Today's MLB Game

The Boston Red Sox host the San Francisco Giants for the finale of their three-game series at Fenway Park on Thursday afternoon.

Boston righty Josh Winckowski is making just his third start of the season and hasn’t been stretched out enough to pitch deep into the game Thursday. San Francisco has 22-year-old southpaw Kyle Harrison toeing the rubber, and he’s coming off his best start of the season against Pittsburgh on Friday.

Here are our free MLB picks and Giants vs. Red Sox predictions for their series finale on Thursday, May 2.

Giants vs Red Sox prediction

My best bet
Kyle Harrison Over 15.5 outs (+140 at bet365)

Best odds available in your region

My analysis

I’m expecting San Francisco Giants starter Kyle Harrison to have another strong outing on Thursday against the Boston Red Sox. He has completed six innings in four of six starts, and the two outliers have been against the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks rank first in wRC+ and the Dodgers are fifth against lefties.

The Boston bats haven’t packed the same punch against left-handed pitchers this season with a 15th-ranked .137 ISO and 14th-ranked 101 wRC+ compared to respective fifth-ranked .170 and seventh-ranked 109 marks against righties. Additionally, Boston has a league-high 29.0 strikeout percentage against southpaws.

The San Fran bullpen has also been busy during the series, so Harrison pitching deeper into Thursday’s game would be a welcomed bonus. Ace Logan Webb only tossed 3 2/3 innings in Game 1 on Tuesday, and the Giants used an opener for a single frame in Game 2 on Wednesday night. 

Additionally, while the Red Sox are certainly rolling, Boston sports a league-high .374 BABIP during its 8-3 run. There’s a splash of statistical correction ahead for the Sox.

Finally, with Pinnacle hanging +117 odds in the MLB player props, we’re gaining a positive expected value of 11% with the +140 bet365 price.

Giants vs Red Sox same-game parlay (SGP)

Kyle Harrison Over 15.5 outs

Under 9.5

+260 at bet365

In addition to my best bet, I’m adding a second leg with the game total. As discussed, I’m not anticipating the Red Sox having a big day at the dish, and I also value Boston starter Josh Winckowski continuing his ascent as a starter.

The 25-year-old righty has only allowed a single run with a 0.95 WHIP across 6 1/3 innings over his two starts, and he should be stretched out enough to approach the midway point of Thursday's game. Boston hasn’t needed to tax its bullpen during the series, either, and Red Sox relievers have a seventh-ranked 3.48 xFIP over 41 1/3 innings during the highlighted 8-3 stretch. The Giants also enter with a middling 91 wRC+ and -3.5 offensive WAR for the campaign.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Giants vs Red Sox odds

Giants vs Red Sox live odds

Giants vs Red Sox opening odds

• Run line: San Francisco +1.5 | Boston -1.5
• Moneyline: San Francisco +101 | Boston -109
• Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9

Giants vs Red Sox spread and Over/Under analysis

• There has been a slight move to the Boston side of this moneyline at bet365, with the Red Sox opening at -110 and trading at -115 as of Thursday morning.
• Additionally, this lack of meaningful line movement is consistent across sportsbooks.
• The total is more interesting because it opened at 9 at most shops and is trading at a consensus 9.5 with the higher vig on the Under as of Thursday morning.
• I don’t anticipate any major adjustments to the moneyline or total before the first pitch.

Giants vs Red Sox trend

Giants starter Kyle Harrison has recorded 15.5 outs in four of his six starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Giants vs. Red Sox

Giants vs Red Sox game info

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