The New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians face off in the rubber match of their three-game set tonight.
My Guardians vs. Yankees predictions believe the Bronx Bombers have a significant edge on the mound in this one, as they hand the ball to Max Fried.
Check out my MLB picks for this American League battle with first pitch set for 7:05 pm ET at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, June 5.
Guardians vs Yankees prediction
My Guardians vs Yankees best bet: Max Fried Over 18.5 outs recorded (+150 at bet365)
When Gerrit Cole got hurt in the offseason, questions were raised about the New York Yankees' rotation. But Max Fried seamlessly stepped into the role of team ace.
The left-hander has dominated during his first season in pinstripes. The 31-year-old Fried enters tonight’s matchup against the Cleveland Guardians, pitching to a 1.92 ERA while limiting opponents to a .205 batting average.
And even though he is coming off his worst start of the season, I think we can give him some leeway. One, his last start was against the Dodgers. Two, it was the first time in 12 starts this season where he allowed more than two earned runs.
Fried has also been a workhorse. He is averaging 94.1 pitches and facing nearly 25 batters per start. That has resulted in him going at least six innings eight times this season.
I’m betting he’s got another long outing in him tonight.
The Guardians' bats have been inconsistent for most of the season, resulting in them ranking 21st in scoring at 4.02 runs per game. They also rank dead last in expected batting average. Lefties in particular have given them problems. Cleveland enters this matchup ranked 25th in OPS and 23rd in wRC+ when facing southpaws this season.
Fried’s outs recorded prop is sitting at 18.5, but the price on the Over of +150 is good enough to take a shot here. He’s also eclipsed this number in seven of his last 10 starts.
Fried should be efficient when working his way through this Guardians lineup and go over this number once again.
Guardians vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Max Fried to record the win
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI
Jhonkensy Noel Under 0.5 hits
Let’s put a twist on this same-game parlay by putting Fried to record a win instead. He has seven wins already this season and will have a great shot to make it eight.
That’s in part because Guardians’ starter Slade Cecconi is struggling. The 25-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 6.61 expected ERA while surrendering a .285 expected batting average to opponents.
Let’s not overcomplicate this. Aaron Judge continues to rake at another level. Two more hits last night brought his average back up to .389. He has driven in 50 runs this season, and I like him to add to that tonight.
Fried on the mound also means a tough night might be in store for Jhonkensy Noel. The Guardians outfielder is hitting just .143 vs. left-handed pitching this season. Under 0.5 hits for Noel.
Guardians vs Yankees odds
Guardians vs Yankees live odds
Guardians vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Cleveland +205 | New York -250
- Run line: Cleveland +1.5 (-105) | New York -1.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Guardians vs Yankees trend
The Guardians have hit the Under in 15 of their last 24 games for +5.95 Units and a 22% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Guardians vs. Yankees.
How to watch Guardians vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 6-5-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CLEG, YES |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Slade Cecconi (1-1, 5.28 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Max Fried (7-1, 1.92 ERA) |
Guardians vs Yankees latest injuries
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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