There's no better way to spend your weekend than betting for home run props, and BetMGM's Grand Slam Jackpot has made hitting your dinger bets potentially even more profitable.
Every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday, if your first bet (of $10 or more) on a player to hit a home run hits a grand slam that day... you win a share of a $50,000 bonus bet jackpot — in addition to BetMGM having among the best MLB player prop odds for homers in the industry.
There's some strategy involved for maximizing your chances of correctly betting a grand salami, so to prep you for each weekend of action, I'll break down my best picks for tonight (spoiler alert, there's a distinct Lonestar flavor to my picks)... along with the best pitchers/players to target ahead of Saturday and Sunday.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot picks for tonight
Jeremy Pena, Astros (+950 at BetMGM)
Yordan Alvarez is never a bad bet (+360 tonight) but I love the value on Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena, who is hitting a sizzling .423 (with two homers) during a seven-game hit streak, with the bonus of being firmly entrenched in the No. 6 spot of the Astros order.
Pena is also hitting .368 against RHP during that span, which helps as he'll face Dodgers RHP Gavin Stone, who has given up a homer in three straight games and five of his last seven overall. Stone has been dealing with plenty of traffic on the basepaths too, with five multi-walk efforts in his last seven outings and 22 hits allowed over his last 12 2/3 IP.
Finally, if Stone manages to avoid disaster... Pena should still have some chances to do damage against the Dodgers bullpen, which has the worst opponent OBP and second-most HR allowed over the last 30 days.
Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers (+1,000 at BetMGM)
The above writeup, if you scratch out the names and squint just a little, would also perfectly apply here: A Texas-based slugger against a homer-prone pitcher supported by a heinous bullpen.
Nate Lowe and the Texas Rangers visit the Toronto Blue Jays tonight, with lefty Yusei Kikuchi on the mound, who avoided a dinger in his last start but coughed up a long ball in four straight games (and 7 of 10 overall) before that.
Kikuchi has also allowed plenty of baserunners — along with a 45.6% fly-ball rate over the last month — and the Jays bullpen is tied with the Dodgers for worst OBP over the last month... while only allowing the eighth-most dingers in that span.
As for why I'm all in on Lowe: He's generally in the 5-6-7 range of the Texas lineup, sporting a .310 average and team-high six HR over the last 30 days, and has safely hit in six of his last seven games.
Plus, he's comfortable batting with the bases juiced, boasting a .325 career average in those situations.
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Saturday preview
Fishy business
Aaron Civale's move from the AL to the NL has done little to improve his dismal season, as he's allowed five jacks in three starts since joining the Milwaukee Brewers, has a 52% FB rate over the last month, and has surrendered a dinger in 16 of 20 appearances this season.
Civale — followed by a bullpen that is tied for the most HR allowed in the last month — faces the Miami Marlins on Saturday, who are fourth in batting average over the last two weeks and have homered in 9 of 11 games during that span (including four multi-HR outings).
Jesus Sanchez (generally bats fifth) and Jake Burger (usually No. 3 or No. 4) lead the team in dingers (and both are above .260) vs. righties over the last 30 days, while Josh Bell (who fills out the middle part of the order) has homered in three of his last four contests and has three straight multi-hit efforts.
Picks: Sanchez > Bell > Burger
Seeing Red(s)
The Tampa Bay Rays have given up the second-most home runs in the Majors this year, with Zack Littell the chief culprit (at least once Aaron Civale was shipped out).
The Rays righty has allowed 17 dingers on the year, five in his last three games, and at least one in 11 of his last 12 starts. He faces a Cincinnati Reds offense sitting fourth among all MLB teams in homers over the last month, with seven multi-HR efforts in its last 11 games.
Spencer Steer, who generally bats fourth, has a team-high six HR and a 42% FB rate against righties over the last month, while Rece Hinds has a wild 65% FB rate, .435 average, and four HR in that span vs. RHP — and bats in the eight hole, which could be better for bases loaded ABs.
There's also human highlight reel Elly De La Cruz, who is hitting .378 (with 3 HR) during an 11-game hitting streak, but his salami chances are a little lower, hitting second in the order.
Picks: Steer > De La Cruz > Hinds
BetMGM Grand Slam Jackpot - Sunday preview
Texas two-step
We're going back to the Rangers on Sunday as we get to fade Jose Berrios, the MLB leader in home runs allowed.
He's allowed a HR in eight of his last nine starts, and his walk rate has spiked as of late with 10 free passes in his last two outings.
In addition to the aforementioned Lowe, I'd look at the two names at the top of the Texas order — Marcus Semien and Corey Seager — who are both hitting well vs. righties of late, both have homered recently (Semien two in his last four games), and with Berrios' walk issues show a little more potential to get a bases-loaded AB than most No. 1-2 hitters.
Picks: Lowe > Semien > Seager
Sunday night special
Carlos Rodon is coming off arguably his best start of the season, fanning 10 across seven innings with one run allowed, but that one run?
It was a homer, which means he's surrendered at least one long ball in six straight starts (10 total), and had been dreadful in his five starts prior to his recent gem.
We'll see more of the ugly Rodon on SNB, as the Boston Red Sox are fifth in HRs against lefties over the last month — and after Rodon comes an NYY bullpen that has allowed the most long balls over the last 30 days.
Noted Yankee killer (and Boston cleanup hitter) Rafael Devers comes to mind first, with a team-high seven HR and .313 average over the past month, while Tyler O'Neill (generally No. 5) has four multi-hit efforts (and two multi-HR games) in his last five outings.
Leadoff hitter Jarren Duran is also white hot, with six multi-hit performances (three HR) in his last eight games... but y'know, leadoff hitters and all.
Picks: O'Neill > Devers > Duran
Key considerations for betting on a grand slam
Grand slams aren't frequent, but if you want to maximize your chance of your bet being the biggest of big flies, here are some statistics to consider:
- From the start of the 2022 season through June 2024, the highest percentage of all plate appearances with the bases loaded was the No. 6 spot (13.51%), followed by the No. 5 hitter (12.89%). Seventh in the order is third at 11.66%, just barely ahead of the cleanup spot (10.85%).
- The No. 3 spot — traditionally a team's best hitter — unsurprisingly has the best home run rate with the bases loaded (3.72%, just ahead of Nos. 2, 4, and 1), but the three-hole actually has the third-fewest PAs with the bases loaded in that span — while the bottom of the order (Nos. 8/9) have the two worst HR rates of all lineup spots.
- The only spots with fewer grand slam chances than No. 3? That would be the leadoff hitter and No. 2 spot, both of which had less than 10% of all bases-loaded PAs.
What's the takeaway? The No. 3 hitter is often your best chance of a home run, but betting on hitters in the 4-7 spot in the order is likely your best shot of getting an at-bat with the bases loaded.
