I know all the real fireworks aren't coming until July 4, but Tuesdays are for betting on baseball bombs.
The unofficial-official day to bet on MLB player props for homers is the middle of the week — with several sportsbooks offering specific betting promotions related to long balls.
However, none are as popular as FanDuel's Dinger Tuesday, where for two different games, you place a $25 bet on a player to hit a home run and get $5 in bonus bets for every total HR hit in that game (regardless of who hits 'em).
I'll break down the best games to target, including a starting pitcher breakdown and best player values, for Dinger Tuesday on July 2.
Best home run props and odds for FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Reds at Yankees (Yankee Stadium, 7:05 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 Graham Ashcraft (RHP) |
2.0 | 22.2 | 28.6 |
 Luis Gil (RHP) |
1.2 | 8.8 | 50.7 |
Ashcraft has struggled all season but has been especially rough over his last 28 innings, allowing 38 hits and six home runs. Both sides of the platoon have done damage, with his cutter (his primary FB) getting tattooed, and tonight he faces a Yankees team fifth in the Majors in HR vs. RHP since June 1.
Gil was an early-season darling but has hit a rough patch as of late, giving up 12 runs in his last two starts and allowing three long balls in his last four outings. Fastball location has been the biggest issue, and the Yanks' bullpen has allowed the sixth-most HR over the last month — plus, playing at Yankee Stadium (with winds blowing to LF) always makes dingers a possibility.
Hitters to target - Reds
* = best price available
- *Jonathan India, RH (+800) - Eight multi-hit games in last nine, plus two homers and a 54% pull rate L30.
- Elly De La Cruz, SH (+520) - Three HR and 39% fly-ball rate since June 1, 11 of 14 HR this year vs. FB.
- Jeimer Candelario, SH (+520) - Team-high eight HR L30, with 44% FB rate and 55% pull rate.
Hitters to target - Yankees
- Aaron Judge, RH (+196) - Hitting .400 with eight dingers and 45% FB rate vs. RHP since June 1, with 11 HR overall in that span.
- Juan Soto, LH (+350) - A 40% FB rate and two HR off righties last month, two HR in last five games overall.
- *Ben Rice, LH (+700) - Still searching for first MLB HR, but hitting .381 vs. RHP in 10 career games w/38% FB rate and .316 off fastballs.
Best betting value: Ben Rice (+700 at FanDuel)
FanDuel Dinger Tuesday
Place a wager of $25 or more on a player to hit a home run bet, get $5 for every homer hit in that game — available for two different games!
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Phillies at Cubs (Wrigley Field, 8:05 p.m. ET)
(All stats last 30 days)
| Pitcher | HR/9 | HR/FB% | FB% |
|---|---|---|---|
 Michael Mercado* (RHP) |
0.4 | 3.9 | 42.1 |
 Hayden Wesneski (RHP) |
4.4 | 40.0 | 50.0 |
*Stats are from AAA in 2024
Mercado has one career MLB frame to his name and has allowed just two HR in 47 innings in Triple-A, but the weather today at Wrigley — moderate wind blowing out to LF — makes this BallParkPal's second-highest upgraded field for homers today.
Plus, Wesneski has been akin to a pitching machine lately, with six homers allowed in his last eight outings — despite mostly being a reliever, as that span totaled just 11 1/3 innings. Righties have accounted for most of the home runs, but after Wesneski comes a Cubs' bullpen sporting the 10th-highest fly-ball rate over the last month.
Hitters to target - Phillies
* = best price available
- *Alec Bohm, RH (+560) - HR yesterday, hitting .352 with four homers and 41% FB rate off righties since June 1.
- Trea Turner, RH (+370) - Hits in 10 of 12 games since returning from injury, with a 44% FB rate off righties in that span.
- David Dahl, LH (+470) - Hitting .262 with three HR in 16 games since returning to MLB, also riding a five-game hit streak.
Hitters to target - Cubs
- *Seiya Suzuki, RH (+390) - Two HR in last five games, with team-high five HR and a 53% FB rate off RHP L30.
- *Christopher Morel, RH (+350) - Also has five HR off righties since June 1, with a 43% FB rate and 43% pull rate.
- *Ian Happ, SH (+500) - Homered in two of his last four games, 41% FB rate off righties last month.
Best betting value: Alec Bohm (+560 at FanDuel)
Not intended for use in MA.
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