Baseball is one of the most popular sports betting options around, particularly in the summer months when the other big leagues are in their offseasons. A reason for that popularity is that sportsbooks can offer hundreds of betting options for a single MLB game. But all those baseball odds can be tough to navigate for even a veteran MLB bettor. From the basics of MLB moneylines, totals and runlines, to the more advanced tips covering things like handicapping umpires and weather, we are here to break down everything you need to know about how to bet baseball odds.
How to Bet Baseball Basics
How to Bet MLB Moneylines
The most common way to bet on MLB are moneyline odds – simply picking which team will win the game outright. But because not all baseball teams are at the same skill level, oddsmakers assign a set of values to both sides of a game based on implied probability of winning.
For example, the New York Yankees are at home hosting the Detroit Tigers. The Yankees are the stronger team and playing at home, so they have a higher implied probability of victory. The Tigers aren’t as good as the Yankees and are the visitors, so they have a lower implied probability of winning the game.
A $100 wager placed on the Yankees’ moneyline at -400 would payout $25.00 in profit if it won, while a $100 bet on the Tigers at +330 would payout $330.00 in profit if the underdog was victorious.
Another way to look at MLB moneyline odds is to treat them like a currency exchange. In order to get $100 back from betting on the Yankees -400 you must wager $400.00 – or risk $4.00 for every $1 you want to win. A $100 bet on the Tigers +330 could turn a profit of $330 – or $3.30 for every $1 wagered.
How to Bet MLB Totals
If you don’t have a strong opinion on which team will win the ballgame but expect the game to be high or low scoring, you can always bet on MLB totals.
Also known as the Over/Under, oddsmakers calculate the expected combined runs scored by both teams and offer the option of betting on whether the final score will go OVER that projected run total or stay UNDER the projected number of runs. The Over/Under total takes many factors into consideration, including starting pitchers, current team performance and offensive stats, home and away splits, and game-time weather.
MLB totals will be displayed as either a whole number (such as 9 runs) or as fractional number with half runs (such as 9.5 runs). You may be asking how a team scores half a run but that’s not exactly what oddsmakers are stating with these types of totals.
An Over/Under with a whole number can have a final score equal to that exact total (a 5-4 final score is exactly 9 runs), which means the Over/Under wagers are graded as a tie or push and the original bet amounts are returned. With fractional Over/Under totals, the final score can’t produce half runs so there’s no chance of a push (a 5-4 final score stays UNDER the 9.5 runs while a 6-4 final score goes OVER the 9.5-run total).
How to Bet MLB Runlines
While most MLB betting is done via moneylines – picking which team will win the game outright – sportsbooks also offer baseball’s version of the point spread: the runline.
With the majority of MLB games decide by slim margins, most runlines have a spread of 1.5 runs and are used to level the playing field between two teams.
The team with the higher implied probability of winning the game – or the favorite - will have a runline of -1.5, which means they have a handicap of 1.5 runs and must win by two or more in order to be graded the runline winner. The team with the lower implied probability of victory – or the underdog - will have a runline of +1.5, which means they’ve been given 1.5 extra runs and can lose by one run or win outright to be graded the runline winner.
There’s also a set of odds associated with each team’s runline, more commonly known as the juice, vig, vigorish or price, which is calculated based on each team’s implied probability of covering their assigned runline (-1.5 or +1.5).
Here’s where it can get tricky for those new to MLB runline betting: while a team may be set as a runline favorite at -1.5, covering that spread is harder than winning outright, based on the matchup. Therefor, that team winning by two or more runs has a lower implied probability. That’s why it’s common to see a runline of -1.5 being set with positive or “plus money” vig.
On the other side of the diamond, a team with a +1.5 runline could have a higher implied probability of covering depending on the difference in skill between the two clubs. That means the vig attached to the +1.5 could be set with negative or “minus money” vig.
MLB Futures Betting
Beyond the odds for the daily action on major league diamonds, you can also bet on MLB World Series odds and other season-long events and results. These types of wagers are best known as futures odds. MLB futures include World Series odds, American and National League Pennant odds, division winners, AL and NL MVP and Cy Young awards, and Over/Under season win totals for all 30 MLB clubs.
These odds are also adjusted throughout the year with team performance, player movement and injuries, as well as individual betting handle influencing those odds. And, once the postseason begins, the market is trimmed to only those qualifying playoff clubs.
Baseball Betting Tips
Starting Pitching
Baseball teams play more games than any other sport. This means as the season progresses, you have a substantial amount of statistical data to analyze. The starting pitchers are the most important factor in setting baseball lines. Two offenses could be equal, but if one team has a substantially better starting pitcher on the mound, they might be anywhere from a -150 to -200 moneyline favorite.
When analyzing the pitching matchup, there are three key statistical categories to take into account: No. 1. ERA (earned run average) tells how many runs per nine-innings the pitcher is allowing. Any number below 3.50 is solid, and below 3.00 ERA is All-Star quality. No. 2. WHIP (walks + hits per innings pitched) gives a good indication of how many base runners a pitcher is allowing each inning. A WHIP below 1.30 is solid and below 1.10 is excellent. No. 3. K/BB (strikeout/walk ratio) and K/9 (strikeouts per nine innings) are also useful as this once again shows which pitchers are able to keep runners off of the bases by striking them out.
Bullpens
While starting pitching is still the key factor to handicapping baseball, it has become less of a factor in deciding the result of games. This is because most starting pitchers only last 5-6 innings, which means bullpens now play a bigger role in the outcome. For this reason, you must also factor in bullpen statistics such as ERA, WHIP, and save percentage.
Handicapping the bullpens is a bit tricky since you never know which actual relief pitcher(s) will be brought into a game. Therefore, using overall seasonal numbers for the entire bullpen is a good barometer. Also, look to play against teams that have used several relief pitchers in the past one or two games as fatigue becomes an issue.
Offense
When analyzing offensive statistics, you can look at the overall team numbers such as runs per game, team batting average, and OPS (on-base + slugging percentage). Be sure to break down the offensive numbers for home and road games, as well as the difference when facing right-handed pitchers (RHP) and left-handed pitchers (LHP). Some teams often exhibit extreme home road dichotomies or perform substantially better against righties or southpaws.
Handicapping Umpires
One of the best kept secrets among sharp baseball bettors is using MLB home plate umpire stats when researching their daily wagers.
Every umpire is different. Some have a large strike zone, benefiting pitchers and Under bettors, while others have a small strike zone, which helps hitters and Over bettors. Some give the home team the benefit of the doubt and others are not rattled by their surroundings.
Major League Baseball likes to keep umpire assignments a secret leading up to a series, but once the assignments for the opening game are known the on-field officials follow a standard clockwise rotation for subsequent games.
Current form/injuries
With the long 162-game regular season, momentum and current form are important handicapping factors. Look to back teams playing well and avoid teams that are struggling, until they turn the corner. This is especially true with current offensive momentum (good and bad). Also, keep an eye out for injuries or teams that might be resting starters.
Watching Weather
With the MLB schedule spanning the spring, summer and fall, baseball bettors will want to keep a close eye on the weather reports around the major leagues.
- Rain can have an impact on the status of a game, as well as a player's performance if the rain isn't intense enough to result in the game being cancelled or postponed.
- Looking at wind speed and direction is a must-do for any baseball bettor handicapping a game played in an open-air stadium. Wind blowing OUT favors the offense, while wind blowing IN favors the pitching/defense.
- Temperatures range at either end of the mercury during baseball season. It’s nothing to see snow in the early workings of the MLB calendar and then plus-100 degree weather come the summer. Some teams don't like the cold, while other teams will thrive in chilly weather.
- Humidity, much like wind, can have a major impact on fly balls. In the dog days of summer, balls tend to carry much further which means a deep fly ball that would be a warning-track out in May is now a home run in August.
5-Inning Lines
In addition to full-game sides and totals most sportsbooks now offer 1, 3, 5, and 7-inning betting options as well. And the 5-inning betting is the moneyspot for those looking for a real edge when it comes to their MLB handicapping.
Every baseball bettor out there has a story about a bullpen that blew a big lead late and sank their bet. Well, the 5-inning bet eliminates that risk and many other variables. You can reasonably expect a starter, particularly the aces of the world, to go five innings in a start. So, the 5-inning option allows you to handicap only the starters and how they fare against the opposing teams.
