Despite coming off a series win over the Atlanta Braves, the San Diego Padres are trying to pull themselves out of a rough patch, and you might think a matchup with the Miami Marlins would be optimal for that, but not so fast.
Miami has been playing better baseball, and San Diego starter Randy Vasquez could be in for a letdown.
My Marlins vs. Padres predictions and MLB picks back the idea that Miami can get off to a good start with first pitch set to go at PETCO Park in San Diego at 8:40 pm ET, on Monday, May 26.
Marlins vs Padres prediction
My Marlins vs Padres best bet: Marlins first 5 innings moneyline (+110 at Caesars)
The San Diego Padres have cooled off considerably since starting 19-11 before going just 10-11 so far in May.
A big reason for that is that the offense has dried up. The Padres rank 16th in batting average, 21st in OPS, and 18th in wRC+ this month. And they get a sneaky tough matchup in the opener of their series against the visiting Miami Marlins.
Miami hands the ball to left-hander Ryan Weathers, who is making just his third start of the season thanks to an injury he suffered in spring training. But his first two, which both came against the Chicago Cubs, went pretty well.
Weathers threw five innings and gave up just one run in both games, both of which were scored on solo home runs. The 25-year-old allowed a total of seven hits and struck out nine while walking just one batter.
That works out to a solid 3.46 expected ERA, which the hard-throwing lefty has obtained by creating a lot of soft contact, ranking in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Meanwhile, the Padres counter Weathers with Randy Vasquez. The 26-year-old right-hander has been solid on paper, pitching to a 3.49 ERA over 10 starts this season. But the advanced numbers say a regression may be on the horizon.
Vasquez has an xERA more than two runs higher than his ERA at 5.57 and is surrendering a .272 expected batting average to opponents. He also doesn’t have real swing-and-miss stuff. He ranks in the 14th percentile in chase rate, and the first percentile in whiff rate. That has resulted in a K-rate that ranks in the Bottom 2% among MLB pitchers.
The Marlins may not be world beaters at the dish but they don’t exactly live up to their Bottom Feeders name as well. Miami enters this game ranked 13th in batting average, and 15th in batting average when facing right-handed pitching this season.
I like the Fish to jump out to an early lead and hold it at least through five innings.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Marlins vs Padres same-game parlay (SGP)
Marlins F5 moneyline
Kyle Stowers Over 0.5 total bases
Ryan Weathers Under 3.5 strikeouts
One of the guys who can help get the Marlins out to an early lead is Kyle Stowers. The Marlins outfielder has been a bright spot this season.
Stowers enters hitting .309 with a .922 OPS, which includes 10 home runs and 31 RBI, and I like him to drive in another run tonight. Those numbers are up to .385 and 1.095 OPS over his last 10 games.
And while I like Weathers to be effective, that doesn’t necessarily mean strikeouts.
Weathers has a slightly above-average strikeout rate of 24.3% while the Padres are one of the hardest lineups to strike out with the third-lowest K-rate vs. lefties. And with Weathers likely sitting around five innings again, we can take a shot at Under 3.5 strikeouts.
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Marlins vs Padres odds
Marlins vs Padres live odds
Marlins vs Padres opening odds
- Moneyline: Miami +115 | San Diego +135
- Run line: Miami +1.5 (-185) | San Diego -1.5 (+155)
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Marlins vs Padres trend
The Marlins have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 11 games for +6.75 Units and a 49% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Marlins vs. Padres.
How to watch Marlins vs Padres and game info
| Location | PETCO Park, San Diego, CAL |
| Date | Monday, 5-26-2025 |
| First pitch | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | SDPA, FDSFL |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Ryan Weathers (1-0, 1.80 ERA) |
| Padres starting pitcher | Randy Vasquez (3-4, 3.49 ERA) |
Marlins vs Padres latest injuries
Marlins vs Padres weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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