Justin Verlander will make his emotional return to Minute Maid Park tonight as the New York Mets look to build on their 11-1 series-opening win last night vs. the Houston Astros, who sit as -140 home favorites with a total of 7.5.
Max Scherzer picked up an octet of punchouts last night, but should bettors be expecting similar results from Verlander tonight considering his struggles with missing bats this season?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Astros on Tuesday, June 20.
Mets vs Astros odds
Mets vs Astros predictions
It will be an emotional day for New York Mets starter Justin Verlander, who returns to Houston for the first time since signing with the Mets this offseason. The right-hander won two championships and a pair of Cy Young Awards with the Astros, but he is not at the top of his game coming into tonight.
On the season, Verlander owns a 21% K%, which is six points lower than last season and much worse than his 34% average from 2018 to 2020. He dealt with shoulder issues heading into the season and owns a pedestrian 24% CSW rate, which is down three points from last year.
He’s less than a K/inning pitcher at this point in his career, and his road numbers have been troublesome with an OPS that is 200 points higher than it is at home. He’ll also face a lineup that is very familiar with his stuff, and also strikes out at the seventh-lowest rate in baseball.
His Under 5.5 strikeouts has been getting shorter all morning. At the time of writing, Pinnacle is sitting at Under 5.5 at -146, giving the FanDuel u5.5 (-118) plenty of value. THE BAT is projecting 4.86 punchouts, so the Under 5.5 is good to -135/-140. The right-hander is dealing with many more distractions than usual today.
My best bet: Verlander Under 5.5 strikeouts (-118)
Mets vs Astros same-game parlay
Verlander Under 5.5 strikeouts
Astros F5 -0.5
Altuve Over 0.5 RBI
Verlander's Under 5.5 Ks correlates with the Houston F5 -0.5, so I'm not getting true odds there. But +175 for the duo isn't bad considering the Under 5.5 Ks is -140 at this book. The pitching matchup favors the home side quite well, as Verlander has been an average arm at age 40 and faces a legit contender in the AL Cy Young odds in Framber Valdez.
Jose Altuve is projected to hit out of two-hole tonight after hitting lead-off yesterday. He is showing a ton of value for an RBI at +240 (0.45 implied), while THE BAT is projecting 0.59 total. He has had 16 at-bats vs. Verlander over his career and is hitting .563 vs. his former teammate. Verlander projects to give up nearly three runs tonight.
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Mets vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mets won 11-1 yesterday in the opener as a +105 road dog, and opened today at +110 before getting longer at +125. The move is likely due to the pitching matchup, as Verlander is a slightly overvalued pitcher who isn’t at his 2022 Cy Young level, and faces a pitcher in Valdez who doesn’t get the hype that Shane McClanahan gets.
Valdez is a bad matchup for the Mets, who sit in the bottom half of the league in average vs. lefties and hit balls on the ground at 45%, which is the eighth-highest rate in baseball. Facing one of the best groundball pitchers in baseball isn’t going to help an offense that beat up a rookie in Hunter Brown yesterday. They also tagged the bullpen for five runs in the ninth inning, making the 11-1 final a little misleading.
Valdez has improved his K-rate this season while cutting down on the walks, and that’s why he is the No. 2 betting favorite to win the AL Cy Young. Opposing batters have just a .600 OPS vs. the Houston lefty.
Verlander has been slightly above average this season, but also owns a .836 OPS on the road this year vs. Colorado, Atlanta, Cincinnati, and Detroit. His strikeout rate is down significantly, his velo is down a shade, and the Houston offense is well aware of his tendencies. This is a pitching matchup that favors the home side, and it's why bettors got on the Astros early.
If home field is worth 20 to 25 points and Valdez is worth 10 to 15 points, that would put this moneyline at around -140 to -150 in favor of the home side.
The total closed at 7.5 yesterday, opened at 7.5 today, and has seen a little movement to the Over. But some even-money o7.5s are still available at the time of writing.
The Houston bullpen has not been one to trust of late as Ryan Pressley is on the hot seat. Valdez is averaging nearly 21 outs per start and might be worth a look at the first five markets instead of the full-game ones.
Bettors are getting a better price on the Houston F5 ML at -135, which also includes a push for a tie after five innings. The total doesn’t interest me but betting on Valdez early certainly does — especially at a better price than the full game.
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Trend to know
The Mets are 1-5 in their last six games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Astros
Mets vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, AT&T SportsNet-Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.40 ERA): Verlander will be making his ninth start of the season and has recorded 18 outs and struck out six or more batters three times, including in two of his last three starts. He's still struggling to get strikeouts with a 24% CSW rate and a 39:13 K/BB ratio over 45 innings. His .230 xBA is the highest it’s been in nearly a decade, and he’s still not up to his 2022 velocity. The Mets are 3-5 SU when he starts, and THE BAT projects 96 pitches, 17.6 outs, 4.86 strikeouts, and 2.97 earned runs.
Framber Valdez (6-5, 2.27 ERA): Valdez is making his 15th start of the season and has recorded a quality start in 11 of those turns. He is currently the No. 2 betting favorite for the AL Cy Young at +450 (bet365) and has allowed more than three earned runs just once this season. His strikeouts are up, his walks are down, and he is still getting groundballs at one of the best rates in baseball. The Astros are 8-6 SU when he starts, and THE BAT is projecting 101 pitches, 18.1 outs, 5.55 strikeouts, and 2.35 earned runs.
