Mets vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Brewers Seize Series Sweep

The New York Mets will try to rebound from two lopsided losses when they take on the Milwaukee Brewers in the finale of a three-game series at American Family Field on Wednesday afternoon.

Milwaukee (4-1) has outscored New York (3-3) by a 19-0 margin in two blowout, shutout wins at home so far during this series.

The Mets face a difficult task if they want to turn things around on Wednesday, as they must contend with Milwaukee ace Corbin Burnes. We’ll break down how these teams stack up in our MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Brewers on April 5.

Mets vs Brewers odds

Mets vs Brewers predictions

After a strong start to the season in Miami against the Marlins, the Mets have fallen back to earth in Milwaukee. New York has suffered two humiliating losses to the Brewers, dropping a 10-0 decision on Monday before falling 9-0 on Tuesday.

The Brewers teed off on Max Scherzer, hitting back-to-back-to-back homers off of the Mets ace in the sixth inning to blow open the game. They managed to go back-to-back again in the seventh, and have now hit seven home runs in the series.

As concerning as the longball barrage may be, it’s the offensive woes that might really have Mets fans scratching their heads. The vaunted New York offense has gone ice cold, generating just 11 hits in 18 innings against the Brewers.

With two consecutive goose eggs on the board, the Mets are now averaging just 3.40 runs per game in the early going of this season. The team is hitting only .201 on the year, with three home runs and a .631 OPS. New York’s 76 OPS+ ranks 25th in the majors. It’s a small sample size, but this is concerning for a team that ranked fifth in MLB in run scoring last season.

If the Mets want to salvage something from this three-game series, they’ll need to find a way to beat Corbin Burnes. The Milwaukee ace took the ball on Opening Day against the Chicago Cubs and was less than impressive, giving up four runs in five innings in a 4-0 loss.

It’s unlikely that Burnes will have many more starts like that this season. The 28-year-old has pitched to an ERA under 3.00 in each of the last three seasons, and has made two consecutive All-Star teams. The 2021 Cy Young Award winner led the National League in strikeouts last season, while holding opponents to a 0.965 WHIP.

The Mets will counter with David Peterson, who lost his first start of the year in a solid five-inning outing against the Marlins on Friday. While Peterson is a solid member of the New York rotation — he pitched to a 3.83 ERA last season — he’s not in the same league as Burnes. He’ll also have to find a way to at least slow down the blistering Brewers offense. Milwaukee found success against Peterson last year, scoring five runs in 4.2 innings pitched against the Mets hurler.

This is a poor matchup all around for New York, and the Mets appear to be reeling a bit after two crushing losses. My money is on Burnes and the Brewers to score a comfortable win on Wednesday and complete a series sweep.

My best bet: Brewers -1.5 (+160 at bet365)

Mets vs Brewers moneyline analysis

The Brewers opened today’s game as a -135 favorite, and that line has held steady at most books. The best lines at the time of this writing have Milwaukee as a -130 favorite, while you can get the Mets at +120 at some sites.

While New York grades out as the better team, there’s no questioning why the Brewers are the favorite today. Burnes is a stud pitcher who gives Milwaukee an excellent chance of victory every time he steps on the mound, and his one poor start to begin the season does nothing to change that.

Last season, the Brewers went 20-13 in Burnes’ starts. Milwaukee is also playing at home, where it put up a solid 46-35 record last season. If we’re willing to look back a bit farther, the Brewers have dominated the Mets in Milwaukee in recent seasons, going 20-7 against New York at home in their last 27 meetings.

As I noted above, the Brewers have had plenty of success against Peterson. Meanwhile, Burnes is a solid 2-1 with a 3.04 ERA against the Mets in five career appearances, including four starts.

The Mets will likely rebound from this series when they get home to face Miami again in New York on Thursday. But they’ll have to struggle through a tough matchup in Milwaukee today first. My money is on the Brewers giving 1.5 runs, and I’d also lean towards Milwaukee on the moneyline if that’s your preferred way to bet this game.

Mets vs Brewers Over/Under analysis

The total on today’s game opened at 7.5 runs. Bettors have brought that number up a bit, and the consensus Over/Under now sits at eight as of Wednesday morning.

The Brewers should do their part when it comes to hitting that total. Milwaukee is averaging 5.5 runs per game so far on the season, and has a favorable matchup against Peterson, who many of the Brewers hitters have had success against before, albeit in limited sample sizes. 

While I like Milwaukee to win this game comfortably, we can’t entirely discount the Mets offense. Sure, New York has failed to score a run in two games in this series, but we know this team will hit eventually. While Burnes has solid career numbers against the Mets, he hasn’t entirely shut them down in the past. Pete Alonso (.587 OPS) and Francisco Lindor (.487 OPS) will start hitting eventually, and this team will score runs when that happens. 

These are two lineups that can generate offense. The Brewers should get the lion’s share of the runs, but I’d be shocked if the Mets are shut out for a third consecutive day, even against a pitcher as good as Burnes. I’m leaning towards the Over in this game, though I’d look for a book where you can still get a total of 7.5 if possible.

Mets vs Brewers game info

Mets vs Brewers betting preview

Starting pitchers

David Peterson (0-1, 1.80 ERA): Peterson was a hard luck loser in his first outing of the year, giving up just one run on eight hits over five innings against the Marlins on Friday. The 27-year-old has become a dependable option for the Mets in the back of the rotation, starting 19 games last season while putting up personal bests in innings pitched (105.2) and strikeouts (126) while posting a career-low 3.64 FIP.

Corbin Burnes (0-1, 7.20 ERA): While Burnes struggled in his first start this season, the Brewers aren’t close to being worried about their ace. The 2021 NL Cy Young winner posted a 12-8 record with a 2.94 ERA last season, reestablishing himself as one of the best pitchers in the league. If there was one area of concern, Burnes did give up 23 home runs last year, a career-high and a dramatic jump from the seven he surrendered in 2021.

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