The MLB betting slate for Friday begins with an afternoon showdown between the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs at 2:20 p.m. ET.
This is the first contest in a three-game set at Wrigley Field and MLB odds have the surging Orioles as slim -115 road favorites with the Over/Under at 8. Here are my best free Orioles vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for June 16.
Orioles vs Cubs odds
Orioles vs Cubs predictions
The Orioles are sending southpaw Cole Irvin to the mound today, and while he was solid in his previous start, there's a reason he had just been recalled from the minor leagues after getting demoted. Irvin was terrible at the beginning of the year and even with that previous outing under his belt, his expected ERA (8.41) and expected slugging percentage (.590) are among the worst in the majors.
Although Irvin had a respectable 3.98 ERA in 30 starts with the A's last year, he struggled away from pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum pitching to a 5.26 ERA with an OBA of.290 in 13 starts on the road.
While the Cubs are 15th in the majors in OPS (.724), that number surges to .770 against lefties like Irvin. Their slumping bats also came alive in their previous series against the Pirates, plating at least seven runs in every contest during a three-game sweep.
Chicago is sending veteran Kyle Hendricks to the mound. Although he has middling numbers over the last few years, the veteran has an impressive career resume (3.45 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP across 226 starts) and is coming off a sensational start against the Giants. It looks like Hendricks is rounding into form after a lengthy stint on the IL and he'll be helped by the fact that the Orioles lineup is missing a few key hitters.
Baltimore's Cedric Mullens (slashing .263/.356/.479) has been out since May 30 with a groin injury and Ryan Mountcastle (team-leading 11 home runs) hit the IL a couple of days ago due to vertigo.
The Cubs bullpen has been shaky lately (4.94 ERA since the start of May) but with the more reliable starter on the mound and their lineup at full strength, I'll back them on the first five innings.
My best bet: First 5 innings Cubs -0.5 (+125 at bet365)
Orioles vs Cubs same-game parlay
First Five Innings RL -0.5 Cubs
Kyle Hendricks Under 1.5 walks
Adam Frazier Under 0.5 runs
Hendricks doesn't rack up many strikeouts, but he also doesn't give many free passes and this number seems inflated by his first two starts of the year, where he walked a total of five batters. It makes sense that his control was a little off since he hadn't pitched in the majors since last July, and he's since walked just one batter in his last two starts.
Frazier has plated 33 runs in 66 games this year but has scored in just four of his last 17 contests. He has an OBP of .297 on the season with that number plummeting to an ugly .217 this month, and with Mullins and Mountcastle sidelined there are fewer guys to drive him in even if he does get on base.
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Orioles vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line hit the board with the Orioles installed as slim -120 road favorites, but money has come in on the home side and most books now have this contest as a pick'em.
The Cubs are coming off a three-game sweep at home against the Pirates where their bats came alive to score a total of 28 runs. They have now won five of their last six games and are 31-37 on the year.
The Orioles have won six of their last seven games and are 43-25, good for second place in the highly-competitive AL East. The O's are tied for ninth in the majors with an OPS of .750 but will be without Mullens and Mountcastle, who are first and second on the team in RBI.
The Cubs lineup is at full strength after Cody Bellinger returned last night to go 1-3 with a double against the Pirates. While the Cubs haven't been hitting over the last month, they do tend to perform better at home, where they plate 4.76 runs per game.
Irvin was demoted to the minors after pitching to a 10.66 ERA in his first three starts of the year. After excelling at Triple-A Norfolk he was called back up and returned to the rotation last Saturday, limiting the Royals to one run on six hits across 5 1/3 innings.
Cubs veteran Hendricks has made four starts this year after being sidelined for more than 10 months due to a shoulder injury. He's fresh off an outing against the Giants where he allowed just one hit through eight innings of shutout ball.
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Trend to know
The Cubs are 22-8 in their last 30 opening games of a series. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Cubs
Orioles vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Friday, June 16, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Cole Irvin (1-2, 7.85 ERA): The 29-year-old pitched to a 3.98 ERA with a 1.16 WHIP in 30 starts with the A's last year. He got off to a terrible start with his new team but, after going 6-1 with a 3.21 ERA at Tripe-A Norfolk, he was brought back into the rotation last Saturday and pitched well.
Kyle Hendricks (1-2, 3.09 ERA): The only player left from the Cubs' 2016 World Series team, Hendricks posted a 3.00 ERA with a 1.09 WHIP in 129 starts between 2016 and 2020. However, in 48 starts over the previous two years, his ERA sits at just 4.78 with his WHIP dropping to 1.33. He has a 1.07 WHIP in 23 1/3 innings this year and his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the top 25th percentile.
