The Arizona Diamondbacks (5-6) look to snap a three-game losing streak when they host the Baltimore Orioles (5-6) for Game 2 of their series on Tuesday night.
Two struggling veteran pitchers get the call in Baltimore’s Charlie Morton and Arizona’s Merrill Kelly. I’m heading to the player prop market to fade the former with my Orioles vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, April 8.
Orioles vs Diamondbacks prediction
My Orioles vs Diamondbacks best bet: Charlie Morton Over 2.5 earned runs (-105 at DraftKings)
Charlie Morton has had a rough start for the Baltimore Orioles, surrendering nine runs across his first 8 1/3 innings. At the ripe old age of 41, it’s fair to question how resounding his bounce-back will be for someone on the ashes of their youth.
It’d be easy to give a cursory look at his .478 BABIP and 53% left-on-base percentage and declare bad luck. While that’s certainly part of the equation, it’s not all of it.
Those numbers will see positive regression, but to what extent? Morton has been getting absolutely abused by opposing batters, ranking in the first percentile in hard-hit rate, the second percentile in average exit velocity, and the 13th percentile in barrel rate.
Morton saw regression on those numbers a year ago (sixth percentile barrel rate, ninth percentile average exit velocity) and the downward trend is continuing as he ages, except with fewer groundballs (24% GB%).
This is a tough matchup in which to get back on track. Against right-handed pitching, the Arizona Diamondbacks rank seventh in wRC+ (127), sixth in wOBA (.355), and third in ISO (.214).
Morton has a five-pitch arsenal, but only his four-seamer (41%) and cutter (7.9%) have been effective while his three off-speed and breaking pitches have been battered around.
Arizona has good results against the heater, posting the second most runs above replacement (7.8). The Diamondbacks also rank Top 10 against the curveball, Morton’s second-most utilized pitch (32%).
It’s fair to categorize this as a difficult matchup for the struggling veteran. With favorable hitting conditions at Chase Field and Morton ramped up to a full workload (98 pitches in his last start), I’ll be paying the Over on his earned runs prop at 2.5.
Orioles vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Charlie Morton Over 2.5 earned runs
Charlie Morton Under 5.5 strikeouts
Heston Kjerstad 2+ total bases
Morton racked up 10 strikeouts in his last start but that’s not supported by his projected 10.3% swinging strike rate. Arizona has the fourth-lowest K rate against RHP (18.6%) and Morton has recorded fewer than 5.5 strikeouts in three of his last four starts.
Heston Kjerstad is finally getting a chance for regular playing time in wake of the Colton Cowser injury. I expect the former second overall pick out of Arkansas to take the opportunity and run with it.
He posted an encouraging 116 wRC+ across 114 plate appearances a year ago and the swing-and-miss in his game (career 29.8% K rate) is mitigated against Merrill Kelly and his 15th percentile whiff rate.
Kelly is off to a poor start overall, ranking in the 11th percentile in xERA and the 16th percentile in xBA. Similarly to Morton, he’s allowing far too much hard contact (ninth percentile average exit velocity, sixth percentile barrel rate).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Orioles vs Diamondbacks odds
Orioles vs Diamondbacks live odds
Orioles vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Baltimore +102 | Arizona -113
- Run line: Baltimore +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Orioles vs Diamondbacks trend
Charlie Morton has allowed 3+ earned runs in four straight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Diamondbacks.
How to watch Orioles vs Diamondbacks and game info
| Location | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-8-2025 |
| First pitch | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MASN2, ARID |
| Orioles starting pitcher | Charlie Morton (0-2, 9.72 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (1-1, 10.00 ERA) |
Orioles vs Diamondbacks latest injuries
Orioles vs Diamondbacks weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
