Padres vs Diamondbacks Picks and Predictions: Darvish Deals to Diamondbacks

Opening Day is upon us, and baseball fans everywhere are more than happy to just have a season at all. 

The San Diego Padres begin the 2022 season without star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr., but have talent up and down the roster to help them stay afloat during his absence. They will open up the season on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are still going through a rebuild and have been entirely written off before a single inning has been played. 

Continue reading for free MLB picks and predictions for the Padres vs Diamondbacks matchup on Thursday, April 7th.

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Padres vs Diamondbacks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Padres opened as high as -158 on the moneyline but have since come down to the -135 range. The total opened at 8.5 and was juiced to the Over at -120, and has since moved up to a balanced 9 with -110 on both sides.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Padres vs Diamondbacks predictions

• Prediction: Padres (-135)
• Prediction: Over 9 (-110)
• Best bet: Padres (-135)

Picks made on 4/7/2022 at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Padres vs Diamondbacks game info

• Location: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports Arizona

Padres vs Diamondbacks betting preview

Starting pitchers

Yu Darvish (2021: 8-11, 4.22 ERA): Darvish is coming off of a down year by his standards, posting just his second 4.00+ ERA campaign since coming to the states in 2012. Well-known for his ability to strike out batters, Darvish was able to manage a K% (29.2%) close to his career mark (29.2%).

Madison Bumgarner (2021: 7-10, 4.67 ERA): The former three-time World Series champion and the 2014 World Series MVP has seemingly lost a step since coming to Arizona two years ago, but if he can make a leap like he did last year after his horrendous 2020 campaign (6.48 ERA), he can possibly strike that magic he displayed in San Francisco.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr SS (Out), Luis Garcia RP (Questionable), Drew Pomeranz RP (Questionable), Aaron Northcraft RP (Questionable).
Diamondbacks: Josh Rojas RF (Out), Jordan Luplow LF (Doubtful), Nick Ahmed SS (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Arizona finished last season with the best Overs record at 89-66-7 (57.4%). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Diamondbacks.

Padres vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Make no mistake about it, Fernando Tatis is a superstar in today's game and when he plays, he is arguably behind only the likes of Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in terms of the value he brings to his team. Although he does have room for improvement in terms of fielding, there is no doubt about his ability at the plate. He ranked third in the MLB last year in barrel percentage (21.3%) and sixth in exit velocity (93.9 MPH), and when combining those two, it should come as no surprise that he ranked second in slugging percentage and first in expected slugging percentage (xSLG).

But the Padres will have to play the opening months of the 2022 season without Tatis, as he recovers from a wrist injury and resulting surgery over the offseason, an injury many believe is the result of a motorcycle accident — no confirmation of the cause has been provided by the organization or Tatis. But make no mistake about it, the Padres still have plenty of talent to make due while he recovers.

Manny Machado is a five-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, and has finished in the Top 5 of MVP voting three times in his career, most recently in 2020. Jake Cronenworth is a newer face who finished second in Rookie of the Year voting two years ago and followed that up with an All-Star appearance last year. Trent Grisham is a 25-year-old who quietly contributed 3.3 WAR last year, and although he may struggle at the plate, he makes up for it in the field.

And CJ Abrams, the Padres’ top-ranked prospect and the ninth overall prospect according to MLB, has made the Opening Day roster and there is a lot of buzz surrounding him. So much so, in fact, that Abrams is already the co-favorite to win National League Rookie of the Year with Seiya Suzuki, a player who has nine years of experience in Japan. Abrams' natural position is shortstop, he will likely find early playing time in right field, given Ha-Seong Kim has been having a blistering spring (.367 BA / .472 OBP / 1.072 OPS).

CJ Abrams took fly balls in right field this morning. Then he played six innings in right in the Padres' spring finale. He caught a sac fly. "Any position to help me get on the team, I'm willing to do it," he said. "Right field, center field, shortstop, second base, anything."

— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) April 5, 2022

That lineup will go against a declining Madison Bumgarner, who has struggled in particular against the Padres. Against the current Padres roster, Bumgarner has allowed an expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) of 0.382, which is the second-highest mark of any Opening Day pitcher, trailing just the Pirates' Jonathan Brubaker. In more commonly-used terms, Bumgarner has pitched to a 6.75 ERA and 0-3 record in his five starts against San Diego the past two seasons.

Yu Darvish will take the Opening Day mound for the Padres following a down year last year. Darvish has had trouble acclimating to new teams in the past, seeing as his three highest marks in ERA were his first seasons with the Rangers (3.90), Cubs (4.95), and Padres (4.22). Yu has seen much better campaigns in subsequent years with the first two, largely on the back of upping his strikeout rate and not letting batters get under the ball (fly ball rate).

Those improvements manifested in second-place finishes in Cy Young votes in his second year with the Rangers and third year with the Cubs. It's no surprise that when Darvish sported a career-high fly ball rate in his first year with the Padres (and a mark 3% higher than his previous high), his ERA also spiked. Darvish may have his work cut out for him against a Diamondbacks team that ranked 26th in OPS, resulting in the fifth-fewest scored runs in 2021.

Prediction: Padres (-135 at BetMGM)

Over/Under analysis

This matchup features two of the most Over-friendly teams from 2021, with Arizona finishing with the best Overs record last year at 89-66-7 (57.4%) and the Padres sporting the fifth-best at 86-72-4 (54.4%).

Arizona's record was largely a product of their inability to prevent runs from being scored, allowing the second-most last year with 893. But the slew of runs they allowed is a bit understated, as the gap between them and the third-highest mark (the Cubs' 839) is the same size as the gap between the third- and tenth-highest marks.

A big component of that was the bullpen's lack of command, sporting the league's only strikeout rate below 20% and the only one to log a strikeout-to-walk ratio (K-BB%) below 10%. The latter is particularly bad considering the second-lowest mark was St. Louis' 11.2% to Arizona's 9.7%. Again, that gap is the same size as the gap between the Cardinals and the 22nd-ranked team.

Between the bullpen's shortcomings and Madison Bumgarner's aforementioned struggles against the Padres, San Diego should be able to chip in enough runs to get Over the total.

Prediction: Over 9 (-110 at DraftKings)

Best bet

Between Tatis' injury and Darvish's down season last year, there may be some unwarranted skepticism clouding the Padres on Opening Day. San Diego has more than enough talent to make due against Bumgarner, who has had extensive struggles against the Padres in his two years with Arizona.

And as covered previously, we likely should discount Darvish's struggles in his first year with the Padres last year. A return to form is entirely reasonable given that he will be going against a Diamondbacks lineup already full of injuries, with starters Josh Rojas and Nick Ahmed out and reserve Jordan Luplow also doubtful for Thursday.

Pick: Padres (-135 at BetMGM)

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