The Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs begin a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night. Both of these clubs enter this set red hot, with Philadelphia going 15-5 in its last 20 games and the Cubbies going 11-3 in their previous 14 contests.
With no starting pitcher announced for Chicago, MLB odds opened with Philly as -130 a road favorite with the Over/Under at 8.5. However, even with Jameson Taillon announced, the line has barely nudged. I'll explain how to attack this in my free Phillies vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for June 27.
Phillies vs Cubs odds
Phillies vs Cubs predictions
There has barely been any difference between these teams at the dish this season with the Philadelphia Phillies sitting 13th in the majors in OPS (.737) and the Chicago Cubs just one spot behind (.731 OPS). However, there is a big difference in the starting pitchers between these sides today.
The Phillies are giving the ball to southpaw Ranger Suarez who has looked very sharp lately. He has pitched to a 1.38 ERA with a .214 OBA over his last five starts despite facing dangerous lineups like the Braves, Dodgers, and Diamondbacks.
The Cubs respond with the struggling Jameson Taillon, who has a 6.71 ERA with a 1.55 WHIP and a .296 OBA through 12 starts. The righty ranks in the Bottom 12th percentile of all pitchers when it comes to barrel rate, expected slugging percentage (.503), and expected ERA (5.58).
Philadelphia has been making good contact against righties like Taillon all season, ranking sixth in the majors in both batting average (.263) and on-base percentage (.334).
With such a large discrepancy on the hill and the Phillies having won six straight on the road, it's a bit surprising to see the visitors as low as -122 on the moneyline. That's a price I'll gladly pay in this matchup.
My best bet: Phillies moneyline (-122 at Pinnacle)
Phillies vs Cubs same-game parlay
Phillies ML
Taillon 5+ hits allowed
Castellanos 2+ TB/Marsh 1+ TB
Let's just call this the fade Taillon parlay. Taillon has allowed at least five hits in nine of his 12 starts this season, and Nick Castellanos' 144 total bases are both a team and rank 16th in the majors. He's been on fire this month, slashing .375/.416/.588 in 20 games.
Brandon Marsh has also been on fire lately and has four multi-hit games in his last five contests. The left-handed Marsh also has a platoon advantage and bats .301 against righties like Taillon.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Phillies vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Phillies at -130 when Chicago's starter for tonight was still up in the air. After Taillon was confirmed as the starter, the line hasn't moved much and is still available at the opening number at most books.
That's a bit surprising considering how poorly Taillon has pitched lately, but the Cubs have been stringing together wins. Suarez is also due for some regression since his opponent's xBA is in the Bottom 20th percentile and his expected ERA sits at 4.33. Chicago has been more productive against lefties like Suarez — boasting an OPS of .774 against southpaws.
The Over/Under opened at 8.5 with the Over juiced to about -120. The total is still at 8.5 although it's now even money on both the Over and Under.
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Trend to know
The Phillies are 10-1 in their last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Cubs
Phillies vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 27, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, Marquee Sports Network |
Starting pitchers
Ranger Suarez (1-2, 3.50 ERA): Suarez was very effective in a hybrid starter/reliever role in 2021 before starting 29 games and posting a 3.65 ERA in 2022. The 27-year-old began this season the IL with an elbow strain and has been solid since returning to the lineup. He has allowed one or fewer runs in each of his last four starts.
Jameson Taillon (2-5, 6.71 ERA): Taillon put together a nice campaign with the Yankees last year, pitching to a 3.91 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP in 32 starts. He has been awful with his new club however and has surrendered at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts.
