Max Scherzer toes the rubber tonight as the New York Mets look to claim a series win against the Philadelphia Phillies tonight. As such, we're rolling with the Mets in our Sunday Night Baseball player prop picks.
We expect Scherzer to go Over his strikeouts total for a third-straight start and are banking on him keeping Rhys Hosking off base in the process. Finally, we're taking a chance on Starling Marte stealing a base at some point over tonight's contest.
MLB props for Phillies vs Mets
Picks made on 4/10/2022 at 2:45 p.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best Phillies vs Mets prop bets
Don't be Mad, Max
While you're not going to get a Max Scherzer strikeout prop at plus money again the rest of the season barring some massive changes to his game, you can't go wrong by riding his lightning.
Scherzer has been his usual dominant self to kick off his tenure in Queens. Diminished strikeout totals in his first two starts were likely a result of easing into the season following an abbreviated spring. He punched out seven Phillies on April 13 but was limited to just five innings of work. In two starts since, Scherzer has finished seven innings both times and had 10 strikeouts in each outing.
And while Philly isn't the most strikeout-prone lineup, that hardly matters for Mad Max. Scherzer tore up the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start, and that lineup has gone down on strikes less often than all but three other major-league teams this season.
As long as Scherzer pitches his customary length, he should eclipse 7.5 strikeouts fairly easily tonight.
Pick: Max Scherzer Over 7.5 strikeouts (-136)
Rhys is in pieces
The matchup isn't in Rhys Hoskins' favor. Yes, he's typically hit in the two-hole this season, but he's struggling mightily. He has a .197 batting average and has struck out in 28.1% of his plate appearances through 22 games.
So now he goes against a pitcher known for limiting hits and striking opponents out. Scherzer has 33 strikeouts in 25 innings (11.88 K/9) and has allowed only 11 hits. Hoskins has especially languished against same-handed pitchers, batting .172 against righties on the year.
Hoskins has great power, but he's never been a batting average guy. He didn't factor in Philadelphia's previous showing against Scherzer and the Mets as he went 0-for-1 as a pinch hitter, so there's some risk that he's given the night off.
Pick: Rhys Hoskins Under 0.5 hits (-105 at DraftKings)
It's a Marte part-ay
The stolen bases prop market is always a risky one to explore. We live in an age where players aren't swiping bags at nearly a comparable clip to years past. However, when it hits it carries a ton of value and is always at plus money.
Cue Starling Marte. The outfielder led the majors with 47 stolen bases in 2021, including 25 in 56 games with the Oakland A's after a midseason trade from the Marlins. Now, he's only got four under his belt to open the season but it's still going to be a massive part of his game. He's stolen at least 30 bases in seven of his last nine seasons, and one of those seasons where he finished with fewer than 30 was the 60-game mutant campaign in 2020.
His .224 batting average is likely the primary culprit behind why he hasn't exactly used his jets to start the year, but some of that can be attributed to a remarkably low — for him — .246 BABIP.
Marte has exclusively been hitting second in New York's lineup this season, so he will get a good number of at-bats tonight, which can help his opportunities at running. Also of some intrigue, Marte's teammate Francisco Lindor has odds of +900 to go Over 0.5 stolen bases tonight. He has three already this season and is getting on base at a much higher frequency than Marte. Still, all those swiped bags came before April 20.
Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto has thrown out four of nine would-be base stealers this season, and while he has a career caught-stealing mark of 35%, he saw that number dip in 2020 and 2021.
Pick: Starling Marte Over 0.5 stolen bases (+525 at bet365)
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