Phillies vs Mets Sunday Night Baseball Props: Targeting Harper and Wheeler in Queens

Bryce Harper is running hot and Zack Wheeler has found his groove on the mound. As such, they're two of three targets in our Sunday Night Baseball player props for Phillies vs. Mets tonight. We're also fading Chris Bassitt. Let's dive in.

Jason Wilson - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Jason Wilson • Publishing Editor
May 29, 2022 • 14:33 ET • 4 min read

For the second time this season, the Philadelphia Phillies face the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball. The Mets took that prior clash 10-6 in an outing where Max Scherzer fanned nine over six innings.

With a different set of arms on the mound, will we get a lower-scoring affair? We're targeting a trio of player prop picks, including one for each starter, from Sunday's nightcap.

Be sure to also check our betting preview for tonight's SNB matchup!

MLB props for Phillies vs Mets

Picks made on 5/29/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bonuses

If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for Sunday Night Baseball, here are two of the best bonuses* available:

B: New users can bet $20 and get $200 in free bets with Caesars! Sign Up Now

B) New users can get two risk-free bets up to $2,000 at PointsBet! Sign Up Now

*Eligible USA locations only

Today’s best Phillies vs Mets prop bets

This Wheel's on fire

Philadelphia Phillies' ace Zack Wheeler opened the season on the injured list and slowly worked his way back from right shoulder soreness that delayed his throwing schedule. As a result, when he did start taking the mound, he shouldered a limited workload. He didn't exceed five innings in either of his first two starts nor did he throw more than 66 pitches in those outings.

This was by design. There's no sense in rushing a Cy Young finalist back with a long season ahead and the Phillies — at least theoretically — being in the hunt for the postseason. It's paid dividends, too. After a couple of rocky outings through the end of April, Wheeler has looked more like the top-shelf hurler from 2021.

In four May starts, Wheeler has pitched into the seventh inning three times, with his lone shorter outing coming against the Dodgers (no shame in that). He's also topped out at 105 pitches in his last start, where he struck out 10 Atlanta Braves hitters over 6 2-3 innings.

His strikeouts total prop is available at 5.5 (-152) at FanDuel, but I'm pivoting to target his outs recorded prop set at 18.5 (+115) for a couple of reasons. First, the Mets are one of four teams with a strikeout rate below 20%. That's not enough to fade Wheeler on his own, and chances are he clears the strikeouts number by virtue of sheer volume if he exceeds his outs recorded prop.

That's where value comes in. You're getting Wheeler at plus money to go 6 1-3 innings, something he has done in three of his last four starts with relative ease. Those early outings aren't indicative of his current durability, either. He's at full strength and can generally be relied upon to pitch deep into games when he's at his best — especially with the porous bullpen behind him. 

Wheeler also exceeded this number in 20 of his 32 starts a year ago en route to leading all MLB pitchers in innings pitched with 213 1-3. 

Pick: Zack Wheeler Over 18.5 outs recorded (+115)

More like Bass-hitt

Chris Bassitt's Mets career started exceptionally. He allowed just one earned run over 12 innings in his first two starts. And after a blip against the San Francisco Giants, he rebounded with six strong shutout innings against the St. Louis Cardinals and a few more solid outings.

Things have regressed a bit in his last two starts, where he's allowed 12 earned runs on 17 hits in 10 2-3 innings vs. those same Cardinals and Giants.

While Bassitt can register whiffs, he has also historically pitched more to contact than to the strikeout, which can result in some bad outcomes. He's also allowing barrels at his worst rate since 2016.

He's fallen prone to the home run ball in those recent disasters, surrendering five long balls after allowing just four in his previous seven starts total. 

The Phillies also have several players who typically rake against right-handed pitching. Bryce Harper — surprise, surprise — is batting .325 against righties this season. Alec Bohm and Jean Segura aren't far behind at .300 and .290, respectively. 

And while Kyle Schwarber has struggled mightily, regardless of the pitcher's handedness, he has hit seven of his 10 homers against right-handers.

Pick: Chris Bassitt Over 5.5 hits allowed (+102)

The Bryce is right

While nursing a small UCL tear, Harper has been installed as the Phillies' designated hitter and it is really starting to pay off. Since May 5, in a span of 17 games, Harper is batting .431 with 10 doubles and six home runs with 10 multi-hit games.

He's one of baseball's hottest hitters, which, as the reigning NL MVP, shouldn't be much of a surprise. He's riding a six-game hitting streak, too, and roped a pair of singles against the Mets last night. 

Harper's also only gone down on strikes once in his last five games and hasn't drawn a walk in that time. He's taking his hacks and no pitching staff has had answers for him.

Behind Bassitt, the Mets have a solid bullpen with a 3.55 ERA (12th in MLB), but the arms they'd go to in order to match up well with Harper leave a little to be desired. Lefties Joely Rodriguez (3.68 ERA) and Chasen Shreve (4.96 ERA) won't strike fear into Harper's heart. Besides, Harper is also batting over .300 against southpaws this season, so the matchup game isn't exactly working against him.

More than half of Harper's total hits this season have been for extra bases, with 25 singles compared to 10 homers, 17 doubles, and a triple. With that in mind, you can comfortably peg him to cover his total bases prop of 1.5 either by virtue of another extra-base hit or a multi-hit outing.

Pick: Bryce Harper total bases Over 1.5 (-105)

SNB parlay

Did you know that if you played today’s Sunday Night Baseball props as a parlay, you could win $74.79 on a $10 bet?

Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.

Pages related to this topic

Jason Wilson Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Jason Wilson is an experienced journalist who has worked in a variety of roles within the industry for the past 18 years. Working at community newspapers in New Brunswick, Jason wore many hats as a reporter, editor, and photographer, covering everything from sports to courts to municipal politics. After shifting gears and working as an educator for a few years in the 2010s, Jason returned to full-time work in media as an MLB news editor for six years at theScore in Toronto before joining Covers in late 2021.

He has honed his editorial acumen over his years in the industry, showcasing flexibility, patience, and a strong work ethic. While he was relatively new to sports betting upon joining Covers, Jason has taken the plunge with gusto to learn the ins and outs of the industry, both as a method to improve professionally and to add an extra angle to his sports fandom.

In addition to sports, Jason is an avid film nut and former movie critic who monitors the Academy Awards betting odds for Covers. Jason holds a Bachelor of Arts in journalism degree and a Bachelor of Education degree from St. Thomas University.

Popular Content

Legal Canadian sports betting

Best Canadian betting sites Ontario sports betting
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo