With each team picking up a pair of lopsided wins in the first two games of the series, the Philadelphia Phillies and Boston Red Sox will both want to head into the All-Star break on a winning note.
The Red Sox’s lead in the AL East has been cut 1.5 games as the Rays have won six in a row while a win from the Phillies will get them back to .500.
Boston opened as a slight -115 favorite for the series finale with the total set at a flat 10.
Here are our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Red Sox for Sunday, July 11.
Phillies vs Red Sox game info
• Location: Fenway Park, Boston, MA
• Date: Sunday, July 11, 2021
• Time: 1:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSP, NESN
Phillies vs Red Sox odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonDraftKings pegged the Red Sox -130 favorites Saturday night, dipped to -115 early this morning and by mid-morning ticked up to -120, where the moneyline stands at 11:30 a.m. ET today. Moneyline ticket count is nearly deadlocked, and the Phillies are drawing 62 percent of moneyline cash. The total opened at 10 (Over -117), made several trips to 9.5 and is now 9.5 (Over -112), with 52 percent of tickets on the Under and money running dead even.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Red Sox betting preview
Starting pitchers
Brandon Kintzler (2-1, 7.54): The Phillies are going with a bullpen day after scheduled starter Aaron Nola was scratched Sunday morning and placed on the COVID-related injured list. Kintzler will serve as the opener and be the first man up for Philadelphia. The veteran righty has been torched in a relief role this season and shouldn't go more than two innings, which is his season-high mark. Expect the Phillies to throw a number of arms at the Red Sox today as they try to piecemeal their way through the final game before the break.
Nick Pivetta (7-3, 4.09 ERA): Pivetta knows a thing or two about the Phillies having spent his first four seasons in Philadelphia. He is yet another average arm in the Red Sox’s rotation, amassing just six quality starts over 17 games. He's a tough pitcher to hit, though, with just 75 hits allowed through 92 innings, with batters hitting just .219 against him. But the walks have been handed out like condoms at the Olympics, with 42 free passes issued. He's a fly-ball pitcher who is either on (two shutout starts in his last three) or gets tagged (two starts of six earned in his last five).
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Alec Bohm 3B (Out), Odubel Herrera OF (Out), Matt Joyce OF (Out).
Red Sox: Marwin Gonzalez 3B (Questionable).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Phillies’ last seven overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Red Sox.
Moneyline pick
[Editor's note: These picks were made before Nola was scratched and placed on the COVID IL.]
The Phillies stacked eight runs in the eighth inning yesterday en route to an 11-2 victory at Fenway. It was payback for an 11-5 Boston win in the opener on Friday. Both teams need this victory and the books have this as a near pick'em. So where is the edge?
Nola is a big name when you look at the pitching matchup and a reason Philly is -105, but it hasn’t been a great year for the right-hander. His ERA is up a full run over his career mark and he comes into the series having given up 11 runs over his last 10-plus innings. Lefties and righties both hit him and his road ERA is over 5.00 across 10 starts. If the Boston offense can bring its Friday team that put 19 runners in scoring position, the Sox have a good chance of sending Nola to the break with some thinking to do.
As a team, Boston is 19 for 75 (.253) versus Nola, with Enrique Hernandez going 3-for-6 against the Philly pitcher with a pair of bombs, while Hunter Renfroe is 5-for-11.
The Phillies will be a little weaker at the bottom of the order with the absence of Alec Bohm who is 3-for-5 in the series with two runs, a home run, and a pair of walks. He exited Saturday’s game due to health and safety protocols. Jean Segura had a big day yesterday, going 3-for-5 with a pair of runs and three RBI but he has yet to see Pivetta and we tend to give the advantage to the pitcher in these situations.
Speaking of pitching, Pivetta has sandwiched a dud between two stellar outings in his last three starts. Pivetta allowed just two hits and zero runs over 13 2-3 innings over the two strong outings, a pair of quality starts. Boston is 12-5 SU in his starts and 7-2 SU at Fenway.
Heading into yesterday's match, the Red Sox had won nine straight games at home and we like the home team to pick up the win heading into the break.
PREDICTION: Boston (-115)
Over/Under pick
With 28 runs scored in the first two games of the series, both offenses have shown they can stack runs. It was the Red Sox who did the damage Friday. On Saturday, it was the Phillies. Could Sunday give us a day where both lineups are helping the Over?
The Phillies went 11-for-38 yesterday with six walks and a pair of home runs. If they get the bad Pivetta, they could easily keep the bats hot on Sunday. Pivetta has a near-5.00 ERA over his last five starts thanks to two games of six runs allowed. He gave up three home runs to the Royals two starts ago and served up four long balls to the Jays on June 12. There are guys in the Philadelphia lineup who have had success against the Boston starter, with Bryce Harper going 3-for-9 with two home runs while J.T. Realmuto is 4-for-11.
Pivetta has had no problem picking up victories but Boston has had to give him plenty of run support, especially at home. The Sox are 7-2 SU in Fenway with Pivetta starting but the right-hander owns a 5.32 ERA in Boston compared to a 2.39 ERA on the road.
Both clubs have had to use their bullpens extensively through the series’ first two games. The Phillies have needed 10 1-3 innings from their relievers and have given up nine hits, three runs, and four walks. Boston has also had to dip into its 'pen for 8 2-3 innings, allowing nine hits, 10 runs, and four walks. If the starters don’t give it up, either bullpen could.
PREDICTION: Over 10 (-105)
Phillies vs Red Sox betting card
- Boston (-115)
- Over 10 (-105)
Picks made on 7/11/2021 at 6:35 a.m. ET
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s MLB Phillies vs. Red Sox picks, you could win $26.50 on a $10 bet?
Use our MLB parlay calculator to create your own parlays and see their potential payouts.
Where can I bet on MLB odds?
You can bet on MLB odds at every online and casino sportsbook, including MLB moneylines, runlines, Over/Under totals, and a ton of MLB prop odds. Head over to our best-suggested sportsbooks for the top spots to bet on MLB odds in your area.
