The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs will continue a weekend series this afternoon at Wrigley Field.
Chicago went 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position yesterday, stranding nine runners in total. Consequently, they dropped the opener in a low-scoring game.
My Pirates vs. Cubs predictions and MLB picks see another low-scoring affair playing out on Saturday, June 14.
Pirates vs Cubs prediction
My Pirates vs Cubs best bet: Matthew Boyd Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (-105 at bet365)
Matthew Boyd’s curious career-long struggles vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates (0-3, 6.53 ERA) have likely just given us a better number on this prop then we’d otherwise have. I see Boyd putting those demons to rest today.
Boyd has been quite solid over his last three starts, allowing more than one earned run just once. His earned runs prop Under closed at around -130 vs. the Rockies last time out, so it’s hard to resist this number here against an offense that may be even worse.
Here’s how the Pirates have ranked offensively against southpaws this season:
- Second-last in runs per game
- Third-to-last in wRC+
- Second-last in OPS
- Second-last in slugging
- Second-highest strikeout rate
The Bucs are also third-to-last in the majors in runs per game on the road, and it’s difficult not to see another ugly outing today.
If you need a final feather in your cap, you’ve got one here: Boyd enters this game with a chase rate that places him in the 80th percentile of baseball. This Pirates team has the fifth-worst chase rate in the sport.
I simply cannot understand this price of -105 and would bet this all the way down to around -144.
Pirates vs Cubs same-game parlay (SGP)
Matthew Boyd Under 1.5 earned runs allowed
Alexander Canario Over 1.5 strikeouts
Alexander Canario leads all Pirates players in whiff rate and strikeout rate against the changeup, and he is second overall amongst Pittsburgh batters in chase rate.
Boyd, who relies heavily on a fastball-changeup mix, should be setting up quite well to get swings and misses from Canario.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
Pirates vs Cubs live odds
Pirates vs Cubs opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +185 | Chicago -225
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 | Chicago -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Pirates vs Cubs trend
The Cubs have hit the moneyline in 37 of their last 61 games (+7.95 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs.
How to watch Pirates vs Cubs and game info
| Location | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date | Saturday, 6-14-2025 |
| First pitch | 2:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNP, MARQ |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Mike Burrows (1-1, 5.00 ERA) |
| Cubs starting pitcher | Matthew Boyd (5-3, 2.89 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cubs latest injuries
Pirates vs Cubs weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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