After locking up the American League East with a win on Thursday, there wouldn’t seem to be anything left for the New York Yankees to play for on Friday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
With that said, this one should be crucial for Carlos Rodon as he looks to continue building form heading into the playoffs for a team with all sorts of question marks in the starting rotation. That leads my Pirates vs. Yankees predictions to believe in a productive night for New York.
Without further ado, let’s get into our MLB picks for Friday, September 27.
Pirates vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees F5 -0.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
My analysis
We may wind up seeing the "hangover lineup" for the New York Yankees, but Carlos Rodon will be ready to take the hill.
The 31-year-old has been good enough with a 3.98 ERA in 31 starts this season, but he’s been working to get back to the level he produced from 2021-22 when he finished Top-6 in Cy Young voting in back-to-back years.
Rodon’s swing-and-miss numbers began to rise as we hit the heart of the summer, with his strikeouts following suit, and he’s really cooking in September with a 1.93 ERA in 23 1/3 innings, striking out 29 batters along the way.
Since June 1, Rodon has a 29.6% strikeout rate with a .219 expected batting average — though with a continued focus toward flyballs, he’s worn a .411 expected slugging in those outings.
Rodon’s cleaned up his act this month, however, bringing those numbers down to .209 and .375, respectively, to go along with a 31.5% strikeout rate, putting him in a great position against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who own a very poor 28% strikeout rate in the last two weeks and have ranked 27th in isolated power.
Jared Jones will oppose Rodon, and his story’s been a bit different. He turned heads early but has a 5.24 ERA in September with a concerning four homers. And after issuing one walk across 13 1/3 in his first two September starts, he's given six free passes in his last two.
New York has crushed righties more than any team and remains devastating to pitchers who struggle with command, walking in 11.9% of plate appearances over the last two weeks. So while its power numbers may be down, the bases should see traffic early.
It’s not often the easiest bet to stomach, but I like laying the runs in the first five innings with the way Rodon enters an incredibly friendly matchup. I’d stay away from the run line for the full game, however, as the Yankees’ bullpen has been a giant mess this month.
Aaron Judge pick: Rare day off
My best bet
N/A
My analysis
Aaron Judge received a rare day off Friday night against the Pirates.
Pirates vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees F5 -0.5
Gleyber Torres Over 0.5 runs
Carlos Rodon 8+ strikeouts
Gleyber Torres has been thriving since taking over as New York’s new leadoff man, excelling in this role with a .278 average. While he’s left much to be desired in the power department, he’s still recorded a .345 OBP in this spot, which is up to .378 in September.
In those 23 games, Torres has scored 18 runs, crossing the plate in four of his last five. In 54 games batting leadoff, he’s scored 36 runs.
Then, I’ll go up to eight punchouts with Rodon amid his dominant strikeout run. He’s hit this number in three of his last six, and with Pittsburgh striking out an incredible amount should settle in nicely here. Keep in mind, too, that before running into some middling strikeout arms in the last five games opposing starters had hit this number in five of eight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Pirates vs Yankees odds
Pirates vs Yankees live odds
Pirates vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Pittsburgh +160 | New York -190
- Run line: Pittsburgh +1.5 (-125) | New York -1.5 (+105)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+100) | Under 8.5 (-120)
Pirates vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened as -190 favorites, but that number has dropped to -165 in the wake of clinching the division.
- While 89% of the bets at DraftKings are on the Yankees, they’ve commanded a slightly lighter 82% of the money.
- The also total came down after the Yankees clinched, starting at 8.5 and steadily dropping to 7.5 on Friday afternoon.
- 74% of the tickets and 82% of the handle are on the Over.
Pirates vs Yankees trend
The Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 61 of their last 102 games (+19.75 Units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Yankees.
Pirates vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 9-27-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet Pittsburgh, YES |
| Pirates starting pitcher: | Jared Jones (6-8, 4.14 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (16-9, 3.98 ERA) |
Pirates vs Yankees latest injuries
Pirates vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
