Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Profar Continues to Mash Against Cubbies

Prop bet #1: MacKenzie Under 4.5 hits allowed

It looks like the Cleveland Guardians have the good Triston McKenzie back. McKenzie was outstanding in 2022 before losing most of 2023 due to injuries, and after a rocky start to this season, it looks like the 26-year-old right hander has settled down.

McKenzie is pitching to a 2.81 ERA while limiting opponents to a .237 batting average over his last three starts. He's arguably coming off his best start of the season, limiting the Astros to two runs on five hits over seven innings. Almost as important is he’s cut down his walks in each of his last three starts. 

Today, he’ll stare across at the rival Detroit Tigers, who trail the Guardians by four games in the American League Central standings. 

The Tigers have had issues with righties this season, ranking 24th in batting average and 24th in wRC+, and they have the sixth-highest strikeout rate.

McKenzie is set up well to have a strong outing in this matchup, and if he doesn’t, I would expect command issues to be the blame as opposed to the Tigers doing a bunch of damage against him. 

That has me looking at the Triston McKenzie odds for Under 4.5. I see multiple ways he can cash this. Either he dominates a struggling Tigers lineup, or he issues too many walks, builds up that pitch count, and gets yanked early.

He’s played under this number in four of six starts this season and I like him to do it again here.

Triston McKenzie prop: Uner 4.5 hits (-105 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Manaea Under 16.5 outs

Sean Manaea has looked good for the New York Mets this season, at least on the surface. Outside of getting tagged for six earned runs in a start against the Kansas City Royals, the lefty has given up four earned runs over his other five starts.

The Mets certainly appreciate that effort, but Manaea hasn’t been the most efficient and could be in for a bit of a regression, even against a St. Louis Cardinals team that has struggled to wing the sticks this season.

Manaea owns a 3.07 ERA, but his expected ERA is sitting at 4.77, and he's surrendering a .260 opponent expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 25th and 31st percentile among MLB pitchers.

And like I said, while Manaea has posted a lot of scoreless innings, they have been a battle. Manaea is averaging less than five innings per start and hasn’t lasted more than five innings since his first start of the season. That’s because he’s building up that pitch count quickly — averaging 91.2 pitches per start — and is in the 11th percentile when it comes to walk rate.

The Cardinals haven’t done much right when it comes to hitting this season, but they are patient at the plate. St. Louis ranks 11th in walk rate and is 10th in pitches seen and chase rate. 

The Mets' hurler could have another solid outing and still fall below his outs-recorded prop in this one, opening a great opportunity to target these Sean Manaea odds. 

Sean Manaea prop: Under 16.5 outs (-125 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Profar 2+ total bases

The San Diego Padres recently traded for hit machine Luis Arraez to presumably hit leadoff and deepen their lineup, but it looks like they have someone playing that role on the roster already. 

It may be a bit surprising that I am talking about betting on Jurickson Profar's odds. The veteran utility man is arguably amid one the best hot streaks of his career, collecting a hit in 10 of his last 11 games — good for a .463 batting average with a 1.243 OPS. That includes two doubles, three dingers, and eight runs batted in.

Profar is locked in, and I like him to stay that way when he digs into the batter’s box tonight against the Chicago Cubs and starter Justin Steele.

Steele was the Cubs’ Opening Day starter following a 2023 campaign where he went 16-5 with a 3.06 ERA, and he got 2024 off to a solid start, allowing one run on three hits over 4 2/3 innings against the Texas Rangers. 

However, that was also Steele’s last start as he injured his hamstring, and this will be his first start since. That likely means the Cubs won’t push him too hard in this matchup. That, in turn, could result in lots of innings for a Chicago bullpen that ranks 22nd in ERA and 21st in xFIP.

Additionally, as a switch hitter, Profar will have the platoon edge against the left-handed Steele. Profar has recorded at least two total bases six times over this 11-game stretch. At this price, he’s a good bet to do it again.

Jurickson Profar prop: 2+ total bases (+180 at bet365)