Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Fade Miller Against Vaunted Phillies Lineup

Prop bet #1: Swirvin Irvin

With young talent scattered all over the roster, the Washington Nationals are a team to start looking at in the futures markets in 2025 and beyond.

One of their talented young arms is Jake Irvin, as the 27-year-old right-hander is pitching to a solid 3.60 expected ERA and a 1.00 WHIP over 18 starts this season. Irvin has allowed just two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last nine starts while limiting opponents to a .184 batting average.

He’s also coming off arguably the best start of his career, which came against, you guessed it, the New York Mets. Irvin dominated the Mets on the Fourth of July, shutting them out on just one hit over eight innings, so they won’t be excited to see him again so soon.

New York batters have had little to no success against Irvin, combining for a .176 expected batting average and a .294 expected slugging. Irvin is a problem for the Mets because the movement on his four-seam fastball and sinker makes it hard to get hits airborne, creating a lot of ground balls. 

Irvin’s hits allowed prop for this matchup is sitting at 5.5. He’s held opponents below that number in 11 of his last 13 starts, and I’m betting he keeps that going in Queens tonight.

Jake Irvin prop: Under 5.5 hits allowed (-115 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: It's (Not) Miller Time

We’ve got a potential preview of the National League Championship Series as the Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Phillies are ahead of the Dodgers when it comes to the best record and run differential in the NL and a big reason for that is because Philly has a noticeable edge in starting pitching at this point. Case in point, the Dodgers hand the ball to young fireballer Bobby Miller.

The 25-year-old Miller earned a spot in the Dodgers’ rotation out of camp and looked incredible in his first start of the season, but that good feeling was short-lived following two poor outings and a shoulder injury that sidelined the right-hander.

Things haven’t looked much different since Miller’s return, as he’s pitched to a 6.75 ERA, surrendered a .930 OPS, and struck out just seven batters in 13 1/3 innings over three starts. The right-hander has a 5.44 expected ERA and is giving up a .262 expected batting average to opponents this season. He also possesses a measly 15.9% strikeout rate over his last five starts, which does not bode well against this dangerous Phillies lineup.

Not only does Philly rank fourth in batting average, ninth in OPS, and eighth in wRC+ vs. righties this season, but they also have the 13th-lowest K-rate vs. right-handed pitchers. 

This projects to be a short outing for Miller as he faces a tough opponent that doesn’t strike out much. His strikeout prop is sitting at 4.5, and he's stayed below that number in his last five starts. The +125 price tag on the Under makes this a great bet today.

Bobby Miller prop: Under 4.5 strikeouts (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Setting Rea Straight

Despite entering Tuesday with a 3.34 ERA, I don’t buy that Milwaukee Brewers starter Colin Rea is suddenly having a breakout season at 34 years of age. Rea’s advanced numbers just tell me a regression is coming, and it could come as soon as tonight versus the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The veteran right-hander is pitching to an expected ERA of 5.17, and his opponent's expected batting average is sitting at .284, ranking in the 11th and seventh percentile among MLB pitchers. Even though Pittsburgh doesn't pose a daunting lineup, current Pirates players have combined to hit for a .258 xBA and a .414 xSLG during their careers. 

Despite Rea’s “success” this season, he’s only recorded 17.5 outs in seven of his 17 starts. On top of that, Rea doesn’t have a very long leash, averaging just 85.1 pitches per start.

I’m betting the Buccos pillage Rea in Milwaukee, so give me the Under 17.5 outs tonight.

Colin Rea prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+115 at bet365)