Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Langford Looks Legit

Prop bet #1: Garcia's time to shine

Patrick Corbin takes the ball for the Washington Nationals, so we’ve got a bet to fade him in tonight’s game vs. the New York Mets, right? Not today, actually. I know, I’m as stunned as you are. 

But the Nats have my attention for non-fading Corbin reasons these days. This roster is really starting to round into shape. There are talented arms in the rotation and dynamic position players, particularly if James Wood turns out to be legit as he's looked.

Mix in CJ Abrams and some others and this lineup is all of a sudden sneaky good and it’s one of the others who is the Nats’ hottest hitter heading into tonight’s game. That would be infielder Luis Garica Jr.

The 24-year-old is locked in, hitting .522 with a 1.560 OPS over his last six games. That includes four multi-hit games and five extra-base hits. As a result, he’s topped 1.5 total bases four times during that span and he’s got a solid matchup against Mets starter Luis Severino. 

The former Yankee got his Mets career off to a solid start, but he’s now in a slump, allowing four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts, working out to a 6.04 ERA while surrendering an .821 OPS. Overall, he grades out as a league-average pitcher in expected ERA and batting average.

I like Garcia to stay hot tonight, and the price on the Over 1.5 total bases makes this a solid bet.

Luis Garcia prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: For the Elly of it

If we’re not going to fade Corbin, you know we’ve at least got to pick on Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies instead, as the southpaw takes the ball in Game 3 of their four-game set at the Great American Ballpark against the Cincinnati Reds.

Now, admittedly, Freeland has looked very good since his return from an elbow injury, allowing just three earned runs over 19 2/3 innings. But overall, the lefty's numbers leave something to be desired. The 31-year-old is pitching to a 5.25 expected ERA while giving up a .296 opponent-expected batting average and striking out just 12.9% of batters faced. Those rank in the 11th, third, and second percentiles among MLB pitchers. Not great.

He doesn’t even get a reprieve from the hitter-friendly Coors Field and has to deal with a Reds lineup that features several dangerous hitters, including Elly De La Cruz.

The Reds shortstop is hitting a solid .251 with a .814 OPS, 15 home runs, and 40 RBI. He also is having a solid start to this series going 3-for-7 with two doubles. As a switch hitter, Elly will have the edge in this matchup, and right-handed batters are getting to Freeland for a .314 average and a .854 OPS this season. De La Cruz has typically hit better as a right-hander this season, boasting an .851 OPS compared to .738 as a lefty bat.

Elly has topped 1.5 total bases nine times in his last 17 games and at this price, I’m willing to bet on him to improve that number.

Elly De La Cruz prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Wyatt is an oak

Texas Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford is on one heck of a run and is now the betting favorite to win the American League Rookie of the Year. Langford will try to keep that momentum going when he digs into the box against embattled Los Angeles Angels starter Griffin Canning tonight.

Langford has been raking for about the last six weeks, hitting .318 with a .910 OPS, including nine doubles, three triples, four home runs, and 27 RBI. He’s also driven in at least one run in 13 of his last 25 games, including the last three in a row, and I like the odds for him to keep that going tonight.

Sure, Langford is seeing the ball well, but the matchup with Canning doesn’t hurt. It’s been another tough season for the Angels right-hander, who has a 4.85 expected ERA and .268 opponent expected batting average ranking in the 18th and 21st percentile, respectively, among MLB pitchers.

On top of that, he’s in a bit of a slump, allowing at least four earned runs and five hits in four of his last five starts, good for a 5.40 ERA and a .806 OPS over that span.

If you need the wheels greased a little more, our Covers Prop Projections have Langford Over 0.5 RBI as a five-star play tonight.

Wyatt Langford prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+165 at bet365)