Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Rosario Starts New Hitting Streak vs Tigers

Prop bet #1: Trying day for Tyler

Tyler Anderson has been an absolute innings eater for the Los Angeles Angels so far this season, completing seven innings of work in three of his four starts, and he has a 1.42 ERA to boot. So, why are we taking him to go Under 17.5 outs (5 2/3 innings) this afternoon?

Well, for starters, Anderson’s numbers aren’t as great as they appear on the surface. The left-hander’s 4.66 FIP and 4.10 xERA paints a picture of a much more average starter. Anderson also hasn’t exactly faced the toughest opponents to this point. The three starts that lasted seven innings came against the Miami Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays, and the Cincinnati Reds. Those teams rank 20th, 21st, and dead-last (30th), respectively, in the majors when it comes to wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers. 

The Baltimore Orioles may pose a bit of a tougher test. 

The O’s have one of the most exciting and dynamic young cores in baseball led by Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman. Baltimore enters this game ranked eighth in batting average, sixth in OPS, and fifth in wRC+ vs. lefties. 

Another thing that has helped Anderson rack up all these innings is that he’s not a big strikeout guy, Bottom 9% of the league in fact. So, he pitches to contact, and that has been successful to this point against poor hitting teams. I’m not so sure he’ll get the same results vs. the Orioles.

Our Covers Prop Projections have him at just 15.9 outs recorded, or almost two whole outs lower than the total. And we’re getting plus money in the Tyler Anderson odds to boot.

Tyler Anderson prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+125 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Hot-hitting Hernandez

While Shohei Ohtani got all the hype this offseason (and deservedly so), the Los Angeles Dodgers made another shrewd move by adding Teoscar Hernandez to the middle of the lineup. 

The move is paying off early. Hernandez is hitting .256 with a .799 OPS and five home runs. He is also tied with Mookie Betts for the team lead with 19 runs batted in, which also ranks ninth in the MLB overall.

Today, he’ll have a great chance to drive in some more runs when he digs in against Washington Nationals starter Jake Irvin.

The Nats right-hander has a 3.13 ERA through four starts this season, but there could be a regression in his near future. Irvin owns a 4.25 expected ERA while surrendering a .282 expected batting average to opposing hitters. Those numbers rank in the 39th and 19th percentile, respectively.

It’s a small sample size, but Hernandez is 1-for-4 in his career vs. Irvin, with the one hit being a homer. Our Covers Prop Projections have Hernandez at 0.7 RBIs, so at +165, the Over 0.5 is offering us some value in the Teoscar Hernandez odds here.

Besides, when you’re hitting behind guys like Betts, Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman, you’re always going to have the chance to drive in runs. I like him to take advantage of this matchup and drive in another tonight. 

Teoscar Hernandez prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+165 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Rosario keeps raking

The hottest player in baseball just saw his 12-game hitting streak come to an end yesterday. I bet you can’t guess who it is. 

Give up? It’s Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Amed Rosario. 

Rosario has been absolutely locked in during this streak, hitting .412 with a 1.020 OPS, and had eight multi-hit games over that span. Now, he went 0-for-3 in yesterday’s 4-2 loss to the Detroit Tigers, but one game without a hit doesn’t have me saying his heater is automatically over. I think he can start a new streak on Wednesday.

Rosario will face off against Tigers starter Jack Flaherty in this one. Flaherty has had, what I would say, are some mixed results throughout is first four starts as a member of the Tigers.

Flaherty has pitched at least six innings in all four starts but he has given up a lot of hits. He is surrendering a .247 opponent expected batting average, which ranks in the 46th percentile, and his 3.83 expected ERA lands him in the 51st percentile. 

And while Rosario and Flaherty don’t have a ton of matchups against one another, Rosario is 2-for-6 with those two hits being doubles. That’s good for a .535 expected slugging percentage.

Rosario is being pegged at 1.5 total bases per our Covers Prop Projections. With the Over 1.5 at +125 in the Amed Rosario odds, I like him to get bounce back and go Over this number for the ninth time in his last 14 games. 

Amed Rosario prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125 at bet365)