MLB Player Props for 7-12: Best Bets for Joe Ryan, Will Smith, & Aaron Judge

Prop bet #1: Saving Private Joe Ryan

I love Joe Ryan's matchup tonight against a San Francisco Giants team that looks ready for the All-Star break. The Giants have lost three of the last four games, but most importantly, their strikeout clip has jumped by nearly one K per game over their last three games.

Ryan is a fastball-heavy pitcher who mixes in a sweeper often to be his "put-away" pitch, having produced a whiff rate of over 32% on the season. Depending on who the Giants roll out for their starting lineup, they could have up to five players with a whiff rate of over 30% against this pitch. 

That problem could be more exposed against the Minnesota Twins right-hander. He'll enter the game sitting in the Top 15% of baseball in such metrics. 

Ryan has pitched six innings in half of his last four games. If we get that tonight — like the market suggests — we like our chances here. We project Ryan at 7.3 strikeouts to 7.8, depending on the batters seen per inning.

Either is enough of an edge to play this at the current price point. 

Joe Ryan prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-128 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Where there's a Will, there's a way

Anytime you see a number like this on Will Smith to go yard, it catches your attention. We love the value for the Los Angeles Dodgers catcher to hit a bomb tonight — even against a terrific Detroit Tigers pitcher.

If there's one issue Tarik Skubal has had this season, it's been the barrel rate. It's mostly the only metric he doesn't grade out as good or excellent in, sitting in the 51st percentile of baseball. Smith is third amongst Dodgers in barrel rate, narrowly behind Teoscar Hernandez. However, he's easily the best when going up against lefties.

Smith will enter today with an isolated power of .325 against lefties, suitable for 11th best in baseball. Considering he hasn't hit a homer this month, that's an overextended streak for a player who averaged about one dinger every five games before July. 

Will Smith prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+650 at Caesars)

Prop bet #3: Court is in session

This is primarily a projection play. I made this number -125, which is a massive edge and a must-play in today's props.

However, Aaron Judge always gets a look for me to affect the game at Camden Yards, given that he hits 40% of his fly balls to center field and the shallowest of the center field wall in Baltimore.

Judge is coming off a terrible series in Tampa Bay, culminating in the New York Yankees superstar going 0-for-4 in another loss. The last time he had a series this rough was last month against the Braves, but he bounced back in the next series opener against the Mets, racking up six total bases, five RBI, and a home run.

While we may not get that tonight, this is a solid matchup, as the two Yankees ahead of Judge in the lineup profile well against Baltimore Orioles lefty Cade Povich. As long as they get on for him, I love our chances for Judge to cash in. 

Aaron Judge prop: Over 0.5 RBI (-110 at FanDuel)