MLB Player Props for 7-26: Best Bets for Drew Thorpe, Gavin Stone, & Kyle Hendricks

Prop bet #1: Fade Thorpe

There’s screaming statistical correction coming for Chicago White Sox rookie Drew Thorpe. His 3.03 ERA is fueled by an unsustainably low .164 BABIP, and good luck is especially supported by his 5.18 xFIP. 

This will also be the second time he’s faced the Seattle Mariners, and Thorpe’s low-90s fastball has him profiling as more of a pitch-to-contact hurler, with his miniscule 5.59 K/9 and 15.4 K% reinforcing it. Of course, the lack of a swing-and-miss pitch mix also sets him up for more balls to fall into play moving forward, and the highlighted BABIP beginning to climb.

The Mariners have also been more dangerous on the road with a .303 wOBA and 96 wRC+ compared to their respective .282 and 90 marks at the pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park. Guaranteed Rate Field is a considerably more favorable park for batters.

Drew Thorpe prop: Under 17.5 outs (-114 at FanDuel)

Prop bet #2: Stone sinks

Los Angeles Dodgers starter Gavin Stone is coming off three consecutive short outings after firing a complete-game shutout against the White Sox on June 26. The 25-year-old righty has pitched just 12 2/3 innings while posting a confidence-shattering 6.39 ERA and 1.97 WHIP across three starts since, and a road date with the Houston Astros sets him up for another early shower.

There has been movement to the Under in this prop already, and it isn’t surprising with Minute Maid Park typically a hitter-friendly venue, and the Astros trotting out a solid lineup that ranks ninth in wOBA (.320) and seventh in wRC+ (109) against right-handed pitchers.

Finally, Stone’s underlying metrics this season suggest he’s overachieved to a degree and his recent struggles were coming. The L.A. righty has a tidy 3.19 but his 4.04 xFIP is notably higher.

Gavin Stone prop: Under 17.5 outs (-120 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Hendricks clears low bar

Chicago Cubs veteran Kyle Hendricks has three or more strikeouts in four of six starts since returning to the rotation June 19. He’s anything but a strikeout artist with 6.79 K/9 and a 16.8 K% across his 13 starts this season.

Still, Hendricks has traded above this 2.5 total in all but one of his starts during the noted six-game stretch, and the market has already started to move the Over. Additionally, he had an early exit from his July 6 start because of a back injury and only fanned a single batter across two frames. 

Hendricks rebounded with a seven-inning start before the All-Star break and threw five frames last Saturday against the Arizona Diamondbacks, so I’m expecting him to pitch deep enough into Friday’s game to fan three or more Kansas City Royals. 

Even with the Royals striking out the second-least against right-handed hurlers (18.9%), I still like Hendricks in this spot because he has been a little unlucky this season. His 4.40 xFIP is well below his 6.21 ERA as a starter, and opposing hitters sport an unsustainably high .326 BABIP. For comparison, Hendricks posted 3.74 and 4.42 marks last year while holding hitters to a .283 BABIP.

Kyle Hendricks prop: Over 2.5 strikeouts (-115 at BetMGM)