It’s a loaded slate on the diamond, and my top MLB player props are the perfect complement to the action.
Texas Rangers righty Jacob deGrom, and New York Mets shortstop Francisco Lindor headline my recommendations for Friday, September 27.
MLB props for September 27
- Jacob deGrom Under 5.5 strikeouts (+126 at Caesars)
- Cade Povich Over 4.5 strikeouts (+112 at Caesars)
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 H + R + RBI (-125 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Jacob deGrom Under 5.5 strikeouts
The two-time Cy Young winner continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery, and he’s only thrown 119 pitches across 6 2/3 innings in his two MLB starts in September. The Texas Rangers are out of the playoff picture, and I’m not anticipating Jacob deGrom ramping up and pitching deep into Friday’s meaningless game.
Plus, he’s been squared up with a 55.6% hard-hit rate and has negative pitch values on his two most frequent offerings, per FanGraphs. Finally, while the Los Angeles Angels are a strikeout-happy club with the seventh-highest strikeout percentage in September, deGrom’s swinging-strike percentage (13.4%) is way down from his 20.4% mark in 2023. He's a long way from his Cy Young form.
Prop bet #2: Cade Povich Over 4.5 strikeouts
Baltimore Orioles rookie Cade Povich has found a groove in September with a 3.27 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 2.91 xFIP while also showing off a sterling 12.27 K/9 and 34.5% K rate. He’s held opposing hitters to a .175 batting average and 71.4% contact percentage with five or more strikeouts in all four starts this month.
While the Minnesota Twins send out a formidable lineup with a 10th-ranked .319 wOBA against southpaws, they’re also struggling down the stretch with an overall .278 mark in September and are all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs.
Prop bet #3: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 H + R + RBI
Franciso Lindor is set to return to the lineup Friday, and he draws a plus matchup against struggling righty Frankie Montas.
Lindor sports a .347 on-base percentage, .355 wOBA and .201 ISO against righties for the season, and Montas enters with an abysmal 5.85 ERA while allowing a 41.3% hard-hit rate across his past six starts. Montas has served up a .376 wOBA to left-handed hitters for the season, too.
I also value Lindor leading off, and he cleared this total in 11 of 14 games with a .391 wOBA before missing time with his back injury.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
