MLB Player Props for 7-25: Best Bets for Freddie Freeman, Luis Severino, & Jo Adell

Prop bet #1: Freeman finds his way

It kind of seems crazy to call Freddie Freeman overlooked. But with the way Shohei Ohtani is raking combined with Teoscar Hernandez winning the Home Run Derby and a bit (let me emphasize "bit") of a down year for the Los Angeles Dodgers All-Star first baseman, that’s kind of what's happening.

Freeman enters this afternoon’s game against the San Francisco Giants hitting .288 with an .891 OPS. Those are good numbers, it’s just that Freeman has hit below .295 once since 2015. He’s also come out of the break in a mini-slump, going just 4-for-18 (.222), but I think all this just creates a great betting opportunity for us today.

First of all, Freeman is too good a hitter to stay down for that long. Second, I love this matchup for him. The former MVP will dig in against Giants starter Logan Webb, a pitcher he has owned over the course of their careers.

Freeman is 14-for-34 with three doubles and a dinger in his career vs. Webb. That’s good for a .365 expected batting average and a .527 expected slugging percentage. 

On top of that, Webb has not been the sharpest version of himself so far this season. The right-hander is pitching to a 4.29 expected ERA while surrendering .276 opponent expected batting average. Webb is also getting hit hard, ranking in second percentile in hard-hit percentage and the 21st percentile in average exit velocity.

All Freeman’s “slump” is doing is giving us a good price on the Over 1.5 total bases, which is sitting at +130. I like him to hit the ball hard against Webb today and cash this bet for us.

Freddie Freeman prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Shaky Sevy

The Luis Severino experience with the New York Mets has been a rollercoaster. He’s had stretches where he’s looked like one of the best starters in the National League, but every now and then he reminds you why he was run out of New York. Well, the Bronx.

Overall, Severino has a 3.73 expected ERA and a .240 opponent expected batting average, which makes him just about a league average starting pitcher. Basically, he either has it or he doesn’t on any given start.

That said, he does seem to battle his command quite often. While his 8.6% walk-rate once again ranks in the 56th percentile, he has handed out two or more free passes 12 times over his 19 starts this season and in each of his last three starts overall, where his walk rate bumps up to 10%.

Part of the reason for that is the Mets seem to be willing to let Severino work through any issues he has on the mound, as he has completed at least six innings in 13 of his last 16 starts. I’m betting he keeps handing out the free passes in tonight’s matchup against the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves haven’t been the same dominant lineup they have been the last few years and aren’t a great walk-rate team, but they have been about league average at 7.6% over the last 30 days. And despite their relative struggles, this is still a dangerous lineup. 

This will be Severino’s second start against the Braves this season. The first lasted five innings, where he allowed two runs on four hits and three walks. I like Atlanta to work some counts tonight and send Severino Over his walk prop once again.

Luis Severino prop: Over 1.5 walks (-118 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: All's well with Adell

Calling Jo Adell a streaky hitter is an understatement. The Los Angeles Angels outfielder is currently hitting below the "Mendoza Line" but you wouldn’t be able to tell that by his performance at the plate lately. His latest hot streak provides us with a solid betting opportunity when the Angels open a series with the Oakland Athletics. 

While Adell is hitless in his last two games, he has a .321 average with a .906 OPS with a home run, eight runs batted in, and five runs scored over his last nine. That includes going 4-for-10 with two RBI in the first series out of the break against this same A’s team.

This time around, he gets a solid matchup against Oakland starter Ross Stripling. The veteran right-hander is making his first start since May 24 after missing two months with elbow inflammation. However, Stripling’s performance before the injury left much to be desired.

The 34-year-old was pitching to a 4.38 expected ERA while surrendering a .297 opponent expected batting average in 11 starts before the injury.

Adell is seeing the ball well lately, has a good pitching matchup, and has gone Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI in seven of his last nine games. Yet, we are still are getting a very nice value on that very prop at +120. And at that price, our Covers Prop Projections have this as a five-star play tonight.

Jo Adell prop: Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+120 at bet365)