It’s another packed slate on the diamond, and our top MLB player props focus on a trio of starting pitchers headlined by a pair of red-hot righties.
Zack Littell has been incredible down the stretch for the Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays veteran Kevin Gausman is also back to taking care of business to wrap up the year. But it's not all sunshine as we'll finish by fading Texas Rangers lefty Cody Bradford in Oakland.
MLB props for September 25
- Zack Littell Under 5.5 hits allowed (+100 at Caesars)
- Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130 at BetMGM)
- Cody Bradford Under 5.5 strikeouts (-115 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Zack Littell Under 5.5 hits allowed
Talk about sneaky good.
Tampa Bay Rays righty Zack Littell has been next to automatic across his past eight starts with a filthy 1.41 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while holding opposing hitters to a .176 batting average, .198 BABIP, and 31.2% hard-hit rate.
He’s allowed five hits or fewer in six of those eight trips to the bump.
Obviously, there’s negative regression across the board given his 4.32 xFIP and 89.9% strand rate during the heater, but I don't anticipate it striking all at once. Plus, the Detroit Tigers have their own statistical correction ahead of their fifth-ranked .309 BABIP during their active 12-3 run. For comparison, Detroit sports a 19th-ranked .287 mark for the campaign.
Prop bet #2: Kevin Gausman Over 5.5 strikeouts
While Toronto Blue Jays veteran Kevin Gausman has only recorded six or more strikeouts in two of his past eight starts, he’s been scorching along an impressive eight-game stretch with a 2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 11.6 K/BB%.
Sure, there’s definitely a splash of statistical correction ahead of his .236 BABIP, and his 4.45 xFIP reinforces he’s been a touch lucky, but the Boston Red Sox are also one of the most strikeout-happy teams in baseball. Boston has a sixth-worst 24.3 K% against righties, and the third-highest overall mark in September (27.6%), after all.
Additionally, I’m not concerned with his ability to pitch deep into Wednesday’s game after leaving his last start with back tightness. If there were any concerns, Gausman wouldn’t be taking the hill at all with Toronto already eliminated from the postseason.
Prop bet #3: Cody Bradford Under 5.5 strikeouts recorded
Texas Rangers lefty Cody Bradford has fanned five or fewer in four of his past seven starts with a run-of-the-mill 7.38 K/9 and 20.8 K%. His .233 BABIP during the stretch is unsustainably low, and the soft-tossing southpaw doesn’t land in a plus-matchup for punchouts today.
The Oakland Athletics sport a middling 23.7 K% with a solid .310 wOBA against lefties for the season, and Bradford hasn’t pitched nearly as well on the road with an 8.10 ERA and 1.50 WHIP compared to 2.25 and 0.86 home marks.
I also value Bradford’s commitment to pitch to contact and trust his defense, which will further limit his strikeout ceiling.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
