Let’s kick off the weekend with some winners on the diamond. And with a jam-packed schedule with 14 games on the MLB odds board, there’s no shortage of options in the player prop market.
Tonight, bettors should look to take advantage of the Braves' matchup with David Peterson and the Mets. The Chicago White Sox continue to be a dumpster fire and must deal with Randy Arozarena and the 21-5 Rays. And is deGrom Day back?
Here are my best MLB player props for Friday, April 28.
MLB props for April 28
Picks made on 4/28/2023 at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Prop bet #1: Problems for Peterson
We get an exciting early-season National League East showdown when the Atlanta Braves take on the New York Mets for a weekend set in Queens. The series opens with a southpaw showdown as Max Fried toes the rubber against David Peterson, and that means it could be a good night for the Braves bats.
Led by Ronald Acuna, the Braves' lineup has been locked in to start the season. They rank third in the MLB in both OPS and runs scored. And more importantly, they crush lefties.
The Braves are hitting .288 with a .852 OPS when digging in against southpaws this season. That ranks fifth and third in the MLB, respectively. They also rank third in wRC+ vs. left-handers.
And it’s not like Peterson has been dealing this season. The lefty has surrendered at least five earned runs in three of his four starts this season, and no fewer than five hits in all four. That works out to a 5.49 expected ERA with an opponent expected batting average of .274, and an opponent expected slugging percentage of .509.
Acuna, Austin Riley, and Matt Olsen all have solid numbers against Peterson, and the Braves are arguably the toughest lineup he has faced all season. The Over/Under for his earned runs allowed tonight is 2.5 with the Over getting even money. Sign me up.
David Peterson Prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (+100)
Prop bet #2: Arozarena adds to White Sox misery
The Chicago White Sox are a dumpster fire. They can’t hit. They can’t pitch. Two of their best players (Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada) are hurt. And now they’ve lost eight consecutive ball games. So, a series against the 21-5 Tampa Bay Rays is just what they need, right?
The White Sox hand the ball to Lucas Giolito in hopes of ending their skid. But much like the rest of his teammates, he’s been inconsistent this season. A couple of good starts, and a couple of bad ones. One of those bad ones came his last time out against this same Rays team.
Tampa Bay got to him for four runs on five hits and two walks, including two dingers when Giolito last took the ball back on April 23.
Surprisingly, one of the players not involved in that damage was Randy Arozarena. The Rays outfielder went 0-for-2 in that game with two walks. But I expect Arozarena to contribute a little more this time around.
Arozarena is hitting .323 with a .938 OPS this season. And while he loves facing lefties, he’s been nearly as good against right-handers as well, getting to them for a .319 average and a .900 OPS.
Additionally, on top of those two walks, Arozarena is 2-for-6 with a .339 xBA and a .682 xSlugging % in his career against Giolito. And those two hits? Both went for extra bases.
I’m backing Randy to go Over his total bases tonight at tantalizing plus money.
Randy Arozarena Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+160)
Prop bet #3: Shining star
So far, so good for Jacob deGrom and the Texas Rangers. The Rangers are in first place in the American League West, and the right-hander is healthy and looking like his old dominant self. deGrom will look to keep dealing when he takes the ball tonight against the visiting New York Yankees.
deGrom’s baseball savant page looks like it was peppered with red paintballs. He ranks in the 92nd percentile or better in xERA (1.91), xBA (.170), K-rate, walk rate, whiff rate, chase rate, and fastball velocity.
Those numbers are made even more impressive by the fact he was shelled by the Philadelphia Phillies in his first start of the season.
In tonight’s matchup against the Yankees, let’s focus on his strikeouts. deGrom is punching out batters like there is no tomorrow. He has 43 in 26 2/3 innings pitched. That works out to 14.5 strikeouts per nine innings, and that number tops the American League.
Now, he goes against a Yankees lineup that has been thinned out due to injuries and doesn’t look very intimidating once you get past the cleanup spot. Overall they rank 18th in batting average and OPS, and 19th in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitchers this season. On top of that, they have the seventh-highest strikeout rate vs. righties this season.
deGrom is in a groove going against a team that is having trouble consistently producing runs at the moment. He should pitch deep into this game, which will help him eclipse his strikeout total of 8.5, a number he has gone Over in three of his last four starts.
Jacob deGrom Prop: Over 8.5 strikeouts (-125)
