April baseball is always hard to predict, but runs and home runs are up, stolen bases are on the rise, and pitchers are still being handled with care. It’s a great time to hit the markets for MLB player prop picks.
Today, I’m fading another pitcher vs. an elite lineup, betting on opportunity over a tough match-up in the RBI market, and betting on one of the hottest bats in the league.
MLB props for April 5
Picks made on 4/05/2023 at 12:02 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
E-Rod's sub-18 outing
Eduardo Rodriguez has a tough matchup today vs. the Astros, who have struggled offensively out of the gates ranking 31st in ISO and 27th in SLG, but this is still one of the best lineups in baseball and has hit the lefty hard before.
In his eight career starts vs. the Astros, Rodriguez has an 0.863 OPS against. He recorded 16 outs on 88 pitches in his opening start vs. the Rays, but this is still a high-BB/9 pitcher who saw a nine-point drop in his K% last season.
THE BAT is projecting 14.6 total outs on 82 pitches. Some books are as low as 16.5 outs and, like German Marquez yesterday, getting knocked around is a real threat here for the Detroit starter.
When THE BAT is projecting almost a full inning of value, it’s an easy choice to add to the card. This can be played to 16.5 for plus money if the market does continue to fall.
Eduardo Rodriguez Prop: Under 17.5 total outs (-110)
Opportunity > matchup
The Seattle offense has a tough matchup vs. Shohei Ohtani today, but that’s leading to some solid value for the middle-of-the-order hitters of the Mariners in the RBI market.
Clean-up hitter Eugenio Suarez is +290 for an RBI at bet365, which is the best price on the board by 40 points at the time of writing. He’s knocked in three so far this season, is hitting .333 on the year, and has some solid table-setters with Julio Rodriguez (hitting .308 with six runs and two stolen bases), Ty France (hitting .360 with five runs and a stolen base), and Teoscar Hernandez, who found his power yesterday with two home runs.
Suarez is 2-for-3 vs. Ohtani in limited at-bats but will also get a chance to cash this big plus-money play vs. the weak L.A. bullpen that hasn’t had a lot of work so far this season.
To compare, L.A. clean-up hitter Hunter Renfroe’s RBI Over is as short as +130. His matchup is obviously better, but I think the difference in price is too drastic and is worth a play on Suarez to win just one unit.
Most clean-up hitters have a projected RBI total of at least 0.45, per THE BAT projections, and Suarez projects as having one of the best values at this price.
Eugenio Suarez Prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+290 to win one unit)
El Chappy
After closing with a total-base prop of 1.5 yesterday, Matt Chapman’s total sits at 0.5 at most books today, but FanDuel is posting a 1.5 total at good plus money for the Over.
Chapman went 3-for-4 yesterday with four total bases and raised his batting average to .579 in the process. He has an extra-base hit in three straight games and is 4-1 to the Over on this prop out of the gates.
The third baseman is averaging a healthy 99 mph off the bat and has barrelled 27% of his batted balls to begin the year. He has a solid matchup vs. 39-year-old Zack Greinke and will also get to face a KC bullpen that he's seen for two days already.
Matt Chapman is locked in early, and this is the exact type of base-running the #BlueJays want more of.
— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) April 4, 2023
Chapman was watching the right-fielder the whole way, and the moment the throw goes to 3B, he hits the gas and takes the extra base. pic.twitter.com/4cvi7AcOqP
He rewarded his manager yesterday with the three-hit performance after getting promoted to the No.4 spot in the lineup thanks to the early-season tear he’s on. I think the bat stays hot tonight, he sees five plate appearances, and could cash this early with how hard he’s hitting the ball.
Matt Chapman Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145)
