The MLB season is in full swing, and with it comes all the glorious player prop markets baseball bettors can explore. We’re digging into Friday’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props.
Today, we search for some pitcher stolen base stats and spotlight the best SB bet of the day, we look for a run from the Astros’ leadoff man, and we back the hottest bat in baseball.
MLB props for April 29
Picks made on 4/29/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
Noah's ark
Since 2018, LA’s Noah Syndergaard has allowed the most stolen bases at 42 despite throwing just 197 innings. His 4.7 innings pitched per stolen base mark is the worst in baseball since 2018 (minimum 150 innings pitched). Base stealers have a 93.3% success rate when swiping against Thor.
In his last start, the Orioles swiped four bags against the Angels’ starter, the Rangers stole two bases versus the righty in the start before that, and Kyle Tucker had a free bag in Thor’s opener. In total, opponents are a perfect 7-for-7 in stealing against Syndergaard.
Today is the White Sox’s turn to pad their stolen base stats and Chicago is certainly not shy on speed on the bases.
Luis Robert leads the team in stolen bases, but the outfielder is banged up and is day-to-day after missing a full week of action. That would leave Tim Anderson as the best player to target here. He hits leadoff, is 3-for-3 on stolen bases this season, and is hitting .288. He's also paying +550 at PointsBet which is a great number for a plus-plus SB matchup.
We don’t know for sure, but we doubt that linemakers are using these pitcher SB stats when setting lines and instead, looking at team stolen bases allowed and possibly catcher SB%. This is why we love playing these stolen base markets and think there is a ton of +EV out there to be had with a little stat hunting.
Pick: Tim Anderson Over 0.5 stolen bases (+550 at PointsBet)
The time Chas come
The Houston Astros have seen plenty of Toronto lefty Yusei Kikuchi from his three seasons with Seattle but they also saw him last week in Houston’s 8-7 extra-inning victory.
Kikuchi lasted just 3 2-3 innings and gave up just three hits, but walked five batters and allowed four runs. Of those three hits allowed, Chas McCormick had two of them — a double and a single. The outfielder has settled into the leadoff spot for the Astros, is 3-for-9 over his last two games with seven total bases and three runs.
McCormick sits second on the team in AVG (.278) and Michael Brantley, who leads the team with a .290 AVG, hits behind him. Brantley also took the Toronto starter deep in the last meeting on Sunday which was the last pitch Kikuchi threw before getting pulled. If McCormick can continue to swing a hot strick vs. the lefty or draw a walk, Brantley and the Houston lineup can knock him in.
With Kikuchi struggling with command (bottom-fifth percentile in BB%), and McCormick likely to see five at-bats at the top of the order and on the road, we like the chances of him crossing the plate against a pitcher he owned just five days ago.
Pick: Chas McCormick to score a run (+115 at Caesars)
A Hosmer-larity contest
The Padres’ offense gets to pad its stats versus Pittsburgh starter Zach Thompson, who comes into the meeting with a 10.80 ERA across three starts. The right-hander currently sits in the bottom-10th percentile in basically every expected stat (xwOBA, xSLG, xBA and xERA). His fastball averages 93 mph and he sits in the bottom-15% in K%. Guys aren’t getting fooled by his stuff and are hitting him hard, as he's given up three long balls over 10 innings of work.
No hitter in baseball has looked as good at the dish as San Diego’s Eric Hosmer, who is leading the league with a .416 batting average and his .600 SLG sits 13th in the league. He has four straight multi-hit games while 10 of his 18 games have been multi-hit efforts. He's 11-7 O/U on his 1.5 total bases prop as well.
Hosmer has also been crushing the ball away from Petco Park and is currently 14-for-30 on the road with 23 total bases and a 1.332 OPS. The veteran hitter has seen Thompson three times and has two hits including a home run.
His Over 1.5 hits market is an incredible +220 while the Over on his 1.5 total bases is +130. We like both these markets but lean on the multi-hit effort at that price. If that isn’t available at your book (FanDuel), the Over 1.5 total bases is a great secondary market at plus money.
We’re riding the hottest bat in baseball for +220 to get his fifth-straight multi-hit game in a plus matchup.
Pick: Eric Hosmer Over 1.5 hits (+220 at FanDuel)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $437.20 on a $10 bet?
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