Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Gurriel Poses Home Run Threat at Citi Field

Prop bet #1: Roman keeps it rolling

Ramon Urias has a sneaky good matchup tonight against St. Louis Cardinals hurler Dakota Hudson. In addition, he's been playing quite well, having gone Over this number in four of his last five games and six of his previous 10. 

Urias will see a heavy dosage of breaking pitches against Hudson, as nearly 80% of the pitches he throws are of the sinker or slider variety. That's right in Urias' wheelhouse, as he ranks in the Top 3 of both batting average and hard-hit rate for those two pitches.

The RBI perspective of this handicap is a little iffy, but there's a considerably high chance that Urias finds himself on base multiple times. Around him are a few more good hitters who hit breaking balls well, which sets Urias up nicely to cross home plate.

At a projection of -135, this was one of the highest edges on the board for me today. Let's bet on Uiras to do what he's done in four of his last five games when he has one of the best matchups he could have of that stretch. 

Ramon Urias prop: Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Dane gets it Dunn

I have a hard time understanding this number. The juice isn't the most attractive thing on the board, but really? 

Dane Dunning has gone Over this number in eight straight starts. He's eclipsed it additionally in 70% of his last 20 games. Sure, the last time he faced off against the Blue Jays, he could only get three strikeouts, but there were some oddities surrounding that game.

The two games prior against the Jays feature him going Over this number in both appearances. I projected Dunning's strikeouts tonight at 4.6. With all of this in mind, the matchup is mostly immaterial, but let's note a few things.

Toronto isn't a prolific strikeout team, but they're still getable. The particulars around this matchup are what the Birds do against breaking pitches, particularly the slider. That's the primary putout pitch for Dunning, and it's produced the highest whiff rate of the season.

The Jays will have a lineup today with four players with a whiff rate of 35% or more against it. This may not cash in the third inning, but it should be relatively straightforward and priced closer to -170.

Dane Dunning prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-160)

Prop bet #3: Goin' yard

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a thing against the New York Mets. He's gone long against them in half of the last six times he's faced them. He's been in a homerun mood, too, having gone deep in three of his last 10 games, which is an excellent middle ground when betting a player to go deep.

You're not betting on them to continue some streak, but you're also not betting on an ice-cold prop. Of course, that's not the only reason we like this matchup.

Conditions in Citi Field tonight should be ripe for homers. Winds will be blowing out, it'll be reasonably humid, and temps will be warm. According to BallParkPal.com, such conditions have presented an average increase of the long ball by 14%.

As for the pitcher (Jose Quintana) vs. batter matchup, it's decent enough. There is no historical data between the two facing off against one another, but there are things to like. 

Quintana leans on his curveball as his primary put-away pitch and has done it more often lately. Gurriel will have the third-highest hard-hit rate against that pitch among D-backs and the highest run-value.

In addition to that, Quintana's primary pitch has been the sinker. This is another pitch that Gurriel profiles well against, with a hard-hit rate of over 50%. This number is too high with such a solid matchup and conditions. 

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. prop: To hit a home run (+870)