The Detroit Tigers are looking for a series sweep over the Tampa Bay Rays when the two clubs meet this afternoon for Game 3 of their three-game series.
Despite the shaky starting pitching, my Rays vs. Tigers prediction is for a low-scoring affair this afternoon at Comerica Park.
Read on for my MLB picks for Thursday, September 26.
Rays vs Tigers prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Tampa Bay Rays hope to avoid a series sweep, and lefty Tyler Alexander gets the nod. He’s coming off a good outing in Toronto, scattering two hits and six punchouts across 4 1/3 scoreless frames.
Alexander could catch a break today as the Detroit Tigers don’t hit left-handers. Their .288 BABIP and 88 wRC+ suggest the Pussycats likely won’t claw their way to many hits or runs against Alexander.
The Rays lefty doesn’t have a long leash, and he’ll turn it over to a bullpen that ranks third in xFIP and is responsible for the second-most holds (43) since the All-Star break.
By comparison, Tigers righty Reese Olson can be hit or miss. He’s surrendered nine earned runs across his past 19 frames. He’s racked up 17 Ks, but the walks are creeping in (seven), as are the HRs (three), which could be problematic early.
Olson also has a short leash, and the Tigers bullpen hasn’t been very good since the break. They’ve spun the most strikeouts (275) but surrendered the fourth-most bombs (37) with a 3.91 xFIP since the All-Star game.
However, Olson and the rest of the Tigers staff could catch a break as the sputtering Rays offense has scored only two runs in this series and 10 runs across their last five. They’ve scored 20 runs across their previous 10 road clashes and average fewer than four runs per away game.
The Rays can’t hit on the road, the Tigers aren’t that much better at home and flail against lefties, so this game ends Under the total.
Rays vs Tigers same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Tyler Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts
Reese Olson Over 4.5 strikeouts
Alexander is striking out 7.36 per nine innings. He’s whiffed 16 across his last 21 2/3 and meets a Detroit offense with a 24.5% strikeout rate to lefties. The Tigers have also gone down on strikes 19 times in 64 at-bats in this series.
By comparison, Olson strikes out 8.14 per nine with 17 strikeouts in his previous 19 stanzas. The Rays boast a 24.8% strikeout rate against right-handers, with 17 Ks during the first two games of this series.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rays vs Tigers odds
Rays vs Tigers live odds
Rays vs Tigers opening odds
- Moneyline: Tampa Bay +140 | Detroit -165
- Run line: Tampa Bay +1.5 (-160) | Detroit -1.5 (+135)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-110) | Under 7.5 (-110)
Rays vs Tigers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Rays are 1-4 against Detroit this season and 36-41 as the away team.
- The Tigers are 8-2 in their last 10 at Comerica Park and trading as low as -152 from a -144 opener (FanDuel).
- Over/Under markets opened at 8.0 (-110), but the number dropped to 7.5 runs.
- Over 7.5 markets report odds from -105 to -115, while Under 7.5 (-105) is also available.
Rays vs Tigers trend
The Tigers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games at home (+11.80 Units / 56% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves.
Rays vs Tigers game info
| Location: | Comerica Park, Detroit, MI |
| Date: | Thursday, 9-26-2024 |
| First pitch: | 1:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Sun, Bally Sports Detroit |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Tyler Alexander (6-5, 5.35 ERA) |
| Braves starting pitcher: | Reese Olson (4-8, 3.49 ERA) |
Rays vs Tigers latest injuries
Rays vs Tigers weather
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