The New York Yankees did it again last night, winning in extra innings for the second straight game in a row. This time, it was via Juan Soto, who delivered his first walk-off hit wearing the pinstripes.
My Red Sox vs. Yankees predictions will focus on the Yankees' ability to win close games as I back the hosts in tonight's MLB picks for September 13.
Red Sox vs Yankees prediction
My best bet
Yankees moneyline (-156 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Last night was brutal for the Boston Red Sox. From a psychological standpoint, it felt like Boston had to get. It had a decisive pitching advantage, which I wrote about, and it went through nine full innings, holding the New York Yankees to a solo run. It just couldn't get its offense going, and now it sits in the precarious position of New York being able to put its playoff hopes on life support.
I'm rolling with the Yankees as my best bet this evening. After a loss like that, I wonder about that mental aspect of things for Boston here, but there's a lot more supporting the Yankees in this spot. Let's talk about them.
These are the spots this Yankees offense thrives in. Tanner Houck takes the Red Sox mound this evening and has had one big problem all season: The hard-hit ball. That's a bit of an issue when facing the Yankees. It's a significant issue. The last time Houck saw New York in the Bronx, he barely made it over three innings before getting pulled after allowing five runs. There's a reason for that, too.
Houck has somehow been fortunate only to face two other teams in the top ten of hard-hit rate this season: the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies. The game against Philly was months ago, so it's hard to take too much from it now but against the Mets? That was his start, where he allowed four earned runs and a home run, lasting just five innings in a loss. I don't expect much difference tonight, but that will be enough with Clarke Schmidt on the mound.
That's because Schmidt is well-suited to take advantage of this matchup. Unlike his counterpart, he does not struggle with hard-hit balls, a key component when facing Boston. Schmidt has been tremendous this season, inducing soft contact with a hard-hit rate and a barrel rate that ranks in the top 70% of baseball. I expect him to dominate a Boston lineup that has been so reliant on power rather than piecing together hits. It's also helpful that Schmidt has upped his K rate even more over the last few games. Boston will enter today with the fifth-highest rate in the league.
Give me New York this evening to claim the series win. They have a decisive advantage on the mound and face a Boston team that may be demoralized mentally.
Aaron Judge pick: All rise
My best bet
Aaron Judge to hit a home run (+280 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The streak breaker is coming, and tonight seems like as good a night as any for Judge.
He's now gone 16 games without a homer, one of the longest stretches of his career.
Again, this goes back to Houck's issues of giving up the hard-hit ball. You don't need me to tell you this, but nobody in baseball is hitting balls harder than Judge. More importantly, though, he's maintained that throughout his homerless stretch, which screams positive regression is coming. I'll take my chances on what one of the better numbers we've seen on him this season is.
Red Sox vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Yankees moneyline
Austin Wells 1+ RBI
We're pairing Austin Wells to record an RBI with our best bet given his likely placement in the lineup.
Wells will either bat fourth or fifth for New York tonight, but either way, we like this spot for him to bring a run in. He'll have the fortune of being placed behind two of the best hard-hitters in baseball: Judge and Juan Soto. As I've already mentioned, that means that they are likely to take advantage of Houck's biggest issue on the mound, which leaves Wells in a prime position here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Red Sox vs Yankees odds
Red Sox vs Yankees live odds
Red Sox vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Boston +120 | New York -145
- Run line: Boston +1.5 (-180) | New York -1.5 (+150)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Red Sox vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- New York has taken money here. At publication, its moneyline price has dropped nearly 15 cents
- New York has now won three straight games in this series, but its overall record in the last ten head-to-head meetings remains at 5-5.
- Boston is struggling right now. Last night's loss pushed its record in the previous ten games to 4-6, losing bettors over three units.
- The Over has been a solid bet when these two teams have met. It's gone in that direction in three of the last four head-to-head matchups.
Red Sox vs Yankees trend
The New York Yankees have covered the Run Line in 61 of their last 113 games (+11.75 Units / 9% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Yankees.
Red Sox vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, The Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, 9-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
| Red Sox starting pitcher: | Tanner Houck (8-10, 3.24 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (5-3, 2.34 ERA) |
Red Sox vs Yankees latest injuries
Red Sox vs Yankees weather
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