It's a small slate today, with some rain in the forecast and a doubleheader in Kansas City.
There aren't a lot of starting pitcher props available today, but there are certainly spots to take advantage of. Let's have another profitable day.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for SPs on Thursday, April 24.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 24
Marquez o5.5 hits allowed (-110 at bet365)
Anderson u16.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
deGrom u1.5 walks allowed (+120 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Rockies at Royals
The angle: With the doubleheader, German Marquez needs to eat some innings
The move: German Marquez Over 5.5 hits allowed (-110 at bet365)
The Colorado Rockies were rained out yesterday and are fitting in two games vs. the Royals in Kansas City today. That means German Marquez needs to protect the league's worst bullpen and eat some innings.
His last start lasted just two outs... and he still hit the Over on this prop. He might get fed to the wolves today and have to earn his paycheck.
Marquez is not a good pitcher and the long reliever of the Rockies was just recalled from Triple-A, where he allowed five runs in seven innings.
The Royals aren't the best offense in baseball right now, but that is a giant ballpark and Marquez might be throwing 90+ pitches regardless of the outcome. I also love the Royals team total Over 4.5 in this game as well.
Pirates at Angels
The angle: Regression is coming for Tyler Anderson
The move: Tyler Anderson Under 16.5 outs (+120 at bet365)
Tyler Anderson has allowed just five hits over his last three starts, with a .157 BABIP as he is pitching well above his numbers.
His expected metrics, however, are very telling; even with all the luck in the world in his favor, he has gone 18 outs just once in four starts this year. I expect that luck to stop tonight vs. the Pirates.
Anderson is coming off a season-high 96 pitches, which isn't a big concern in itself, but he is not a pitcher who reaches 95+ pitches often. Since August of last year, a stretch of 14 starts, he has hit 18 outs just three times.
There are some Under 17.5s out there at -130, but 50 points between one out on a non-key number is a very big difference — and worth hitting.
Rangers at Athletics
The angle: Jacob deGrom is back and has elite command
The move: Jacob deGrom Under 1.5 walks allowed (+120 at bet365)
Jacob deGrom went 21 outs in his last start and walked just one batter. He looks healthy and is coming off a 96-pitch start, his highest of the season, and might even be capped today by the Texas Rangers at 18 outs or 90-95 pitches.
Simply put, this prop should priced around even money.
When he was healthy, he was walking around 0.25 batters per inning. That is solid command, yet he is being priced as the pitcher who was working to get back to health when he might already be there entering today. He is still a dominating pitcher and batters will have to swing early in his counts as getting behind vs. deGrom is a nightmare.
The Athletics are also one of the best BB% matchups in baseball, ranking 25th in walk percentage at 8.1%.
Not intended for use in MA.
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