UFC 292 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Rodrigues Takes Tiuliulin Down

UFC 292 is taking place tonight at the TD Arena in Boston, and the bantamweight division is showing out with three fights on the main card alone. The preliminaries, however, feature some of the more intriguing bouts on the card.

While you’re waiting to see if Aljamain Sterling can turn away the ascension of “Suga” Sean O’Malley, or if Da’Mon Blackshear can win his second fight in two weeks, there’s plenty of action to be had on the preliminaries.

Here is a look at the UFC odds and my free picks from the UFC 292 preliminaries from Boston.

UFC 292 prelim picks and predictions

Andre Petroski vs. Gerald Meerchaert
• Prediction: Petroski ML (-238)
• Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+110)

Gregory Rodrigues vs. Deni Tiuliulin
• Prediction: Rodrigues ML (-355)
• Best Bet: Rodrigues by KO/TKO/DQ (+110)

Chris Weidman vs. Brad Tavares
• Prediction: Tavares ML (-265)
• Best Bet: Tavares by decision (+180)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

The UFC continues to find big punchers to crack Meerschaert’s chin as evidenced by this matchup. Petroski is a powerful striker who can wrestle and dominate on the ground. Though Meerschaert has beaten fighters of this make, that’s been because he’s been able to defuse strikers by exploiting their ground defense. That isn’t happening here.

Meerschaert’s BJJ skills are better when he’s defending submissions than initiating, and coupled with his leaky striking defense, this doesn’t look good for him. The only way I see Meerschaert winning is with a lot of clinches and body strikes to slow Petroski down, which puts him right in harm’s way, and having to fight the perfect fight.

I’m picking Petroski to win, and the fight going under 1.5 rounds is my best bet.

Prediction: Andre Petroski moneyline (-238 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+110 at DraftKings)

The wild-swinging Rodrigues has a little bit of everything, yet suffers from an over-willingness to brawl. The Brazilian has lights-out striking power and can fall back on wrestling and BJJ when the occasion calls for it. He’s a hunter willing to get dusty, and that recently resulted in him getting sparked out by Bruno Ferreira at UFC 283. 

Tiuliulin is as tough as they come, and while he has a decent chance to spring an upset, he’s woefully underdeveloped in the ground department. Rodrigues' superior technique should be enough to get him to the ground where Tiuliulin is practically dead meat. If he keeps the fight standing, he might have a chance to stun Rodrigues. 

I’m going with Rodrigues to win, likely with a ground and pound.

Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues moneyline (-355 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Rodrigues to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+110 at DraftKings)

Weidman’s leg injury happened two years ago, and it’s still serviceable as nightmare fuel. After two surgeries, Weidman is returning at 39 and has won only two fights since 2015. Tavares is coming off a loss to Bruno Silva, yet remains a reliable competitor with solid striking and excellent conditioning. While Weidman winning a fight after a gruesome injury and inactivity would make great theater, it’s not in the cards.

Weidman relies on his wrestling to generate offense, and his compromised mobility prevents him from closing the distance on Tavares. I expect Tavares to keep Weidman on the outside, peppering him with jabs and leg kicks for the duration of the bout. 

No miracle or magic moment here as Tavares wins a wide decision.

Prediction: Tavares moneyline (-265 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Tavares to win by decision (+180 at DraftKings)

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