The Subway Series begins tonight when the New York Mets welcome the New York Yankees to Citi Field.
It's been a busy rivalry period for the Yankees, as they come into this series off the backs of one with the Boston Red Sox. They lost the rubber game of that one on Sunday when Boston sparked a late comeback and won in extra innings.
On the other end, things haven't been good for the Mets. They've lost eight of the last nine games and are trending toward being one of the biggest disappointments in baseball. They are now 9.5 games back in the NL East, making this series about as big as one can get in June.
Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Mets on Tuesday, June 13th.
Yankees vs Mets odds
Yankees vs Mets predictions
I'm grabbing the Under tonight as my best bet, and the list of reasons why is long; let's get to them.
Although it's changed over the years, Citi Field can still be defined as a pitcher's park. It won't be particularly warm, and winds should be blowing off to right field, something that has resulted in about a 10% run reduction in years past. It's also worth noting that my numbers placed this projection at 6.5, a significant edge against the current number.
The matchup aspect of this is simple.
On one side, we have Max Scherzer coming off one of his worst starts of the season. If there's anything that history has taught us in the past, backing Mad Max in a bounce-back start is generally going to be a good bet.
Even though I've previously written in detail about how he hasn't been vintage Scherzer for much of the season, this still rings true. We have one data point of it this season when he allowed five earned runs to the Milwaukee Brewers, then responded with back-to-back scoreless starts. It also helps that the Yankees' chase rates have gone up lately, and that's the key to success for Scherzer. He'll respond well tonight and keep the scoring to a minimum.
On the other side, Luis Severino hasn't been good this year, but if you're going to get a spot where he delivers, then this is as good as any. His overall matchup is favorable with no Pete Alonso to deal with and the rest of the Mets' recent offensive struggles.
Severino has been a ground ball pitcher much of his career, and not getting those ground balls this season has been at the root of his issues. But the Mets may provide a remedy for that.
On the season, they have the seventh-highest ground ball rate in baseball (which has jumped even higher lately), along with the eighth-highest "weak contact" rate. If Severino can finish the second half of the season strong, it would start here against an offense that hasn't been good overall and has struggled lately.
The situational trends are too much to ignore, and the Under has been a profitable bet for this pair as of late. The total has gone Under in four consecutive Yankees games, and it's gone that direction in six of the last seven for the Mets at home. Here's to that continuing.
My best bet: Under 8 (-120 at bet365)
Yankees vs Mets same-game parlay
Under 8.5
Scherzer to record a win
Scherzer 7+ strikeouts
I'm making a significantly correlated parlay with my best bet.
I'm expecting we'll see something close to vintage Scherzer tonight, and vintage Scherzer means he goes the length required to record a win. I see a clear pitching edge between both teams, and even though this is a low-scoring game, I expect the Mets to attack Severino's hard-hit issues enough to get them in a position to win.
As for the strikeouts, it's simply a belief and bet on the Yankees continuing to chase pitches outside the zone. They've done that at a 10% higher clip over the last week than on the season, and if that continues, Max will clear this number as he remains an elite strikeout pitcher.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Yankees vs Mets moneyline and Over/Under analysis
I could make a case for either team in this matchup, but I'm still determining how much confidence I'd have behind it. My projections made this number -136 in favor of the Mets, and that's relatively close to where the market is.
The Yankees' offense has been downright bad lately, scoring the second-fewest runs in baseball over the last three games. As for the Metropolitans, their offense has been rough most of the season, and ranks at or near the bottom of the league in various vital metrics. Now that both teams' stars are sidelined for this game (Pete Alonso and Aaron Judge), it's hard to give either an edge when both lack such a critical punch.
If I'm forced to back a team, I'm taking the one with Scherzer, especially given that you're getting him in a bounce-back spot. However, I'm not running to bet a line north of -140 on a team that has been one of the worst in baseball lately.
I saw more of an edge on the entire game total rather than the first five total, but I wouldn't necessarily be opposed to playing both. A nice feather in your cap when isolating the first five Under is that both teams have been slow to start games since the lineup changes. Neither has scored a first-inning run over their last three games, and allowing either of these pitchers to get a comfortable start is not ideal for their opponent.
Scherzer is Scherzer, and once he settles into games, we usually know the result. On the other end, a comfortable first inning for a struggling Severino is what he needs to propel him to a strong start.
The Under has been a profitable bet in recent games for both the Yankees and the Mets. It's to be expected, given their offensive struggles.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $2,500! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Yankees' last four games have gone Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Mets.
Yankees vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, June 13, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (0-1, 5.75 ERA): Severino is a case of his ERA being an accurate reflection of his performance. The issues are plenty, but the biggest one contributing to his rough start has been the lack of swing and misses. I've written about Severino several times this season, and the story has stayed the same. His strikeout and whiff rates are in the Bottom 20% of the league. That's a big issue when most of the contact you're giving up is hard.
Max Scherzer (5-2, 71 ERA): There's been some regression or just simply Father Time doing its thing for Scherzer, but he's still Scherzer. He's coming off a rough start against the Braves, where he gave up a massive number of hits (11) and allowed five earned runs in just over five innings. Before that start, though, Mad Max strung together a few games of his vintage self, including a seven-inning, one-run appearance against the Phillies. The safest prognosis for the rest of Scherzer's season is simple. We'll see a few more wobbles than usual, but we'll also see plenty of reminders of why he will likely be in Cooperstown when it's all said and done.
