PFL Super Fights: Francis Ngannou vs Renan Ferreira Odds, Picks & Predictions

Former UFC heavyweight champion Francis Ngannou returns to MMA as he takes on PFL champ Renan Ferreira at PFL Super Fights: Battle of the Giants on October 19.

Ngannou relinquished his UFC title two years ago to make bank in the boxing ring but he's returning to the cage and is a -300 favorite to take the belt from Ferreira. Here are my free betting picks for Francis Ngannou vs. Renan Ferreira for October 19 from The Mayadeen in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. 

Ngannou vs Ferreira prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Ngannou (-300 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet
  Over 1.5 rounds (+160 at BET99)

Fight analysis

When the odds for this fight opened with Ngannou at -430 and Ferreira at +300, I expected money to come in on Ngannou making Ferreira the value bet. After all, in clashes between heavyweights with death-touch power, all it takes is one shot to end the fight. 

Not to mention that Ngannou is only seven months removed from an ugly knockout loss at the hands of Anthony Joshua in the boxing ring. Ferreira not only hits extremely hard but he's athletic for his size and has a two-inch reach advantage which the massive Ngannou isn't used to. 

That said, Ferreira's odds have shortened to +225 which takes away some of the underdog upside he had. He has also faced a far lower level of competition than Ngannou who went 12-2 in the UFC and viciously knocked out a slew of Top-10 heavyweights.

Although Ngannou is coming off a KO loss, he hasn't taken much damage in his career and before that, he knocked down then WBC heavyweight champion Tyson Fury in a competitive split-decision defeat.

Ngannou has incredible power in his mitts but he also has better boxing technique than Ferreira and is more well-rounded with the Brazilian having extremely poor defensive wrestling. That has me expecting Ngannou to win, although I'd avoid the ML price and look elsewhere for betting value. 

Best best analysis

Ferreira has won four fights in a row by KO/TKO inside the first six minutes while Ngannou has a resume stuffed with 11 first-round finishes. That said, this bout might go longer than oddsmakers expect.  

When Ngannou came off his first UFC loss (against Stipe Miocic in 2018) he faced a dangerous power puncher in his next fight and put on a snoozer where he stared at Derrick Lewis for 15 minutes. I could see him similarly gun-shy this time around. 

The last time we saw Ngannou in MMA he defended his title against Ciryl Gane and used four takedowns and more than eight minutes of control time to win by decision. That strategy came out of nowhere for Ngannou who had seldom used grappling in the past but he didn't seem confident standing up against Gane and he might use the same gameplan versus Ferreira.

Especially since Ferreira has shown little resistance to takedowns and is useless off his back. Don't forget that he was taken down at will and controlled for three rounds by Klidson Abreu and Rizvan Kuniev in recent years although those bouts were later ruled "no decisions" due to those fighters juicing.

Ngannou doesn't need PEDs to take down Ferreira and with other fighters like Ante Delija, Carl Seamanatufa, and Fabricio Werdum also getting Ferreira to the mat with ease, a wrestling approach from Ngannou should lead to this fight going past the midway point of Round 2. 

Francis Ngannou vs Renan Ferreira odds

Method of Victory	Ngannou	Ferreira
To win outright	-300	+225
Total Rounds	Over 1.5 +150	Under 1.5 -200

Odds as of 10-17.

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Francis Ngannou vs Renan Ferreira tale of the tape

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